Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b21cf64d79319aa8f7cfdd480bec7356190354da2f581383245ace71d940e69

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,649,558
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,380,516

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,649,558 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6a2f…b61bbacked Yes	0c	332,923$1,042 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,042.24	16	0%0 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8658…f20fbacked Yes	0c	268,621$806 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$806.09	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2275…fb3cbacked Yes	0c	62,872$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.62	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	2cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a64…efd5backed Yes	1c	36,605$452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$451.88	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	23cpaid	-84.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf49c…9786backed Yes	0c	20,701$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.76	152	9.9%15 W · 137 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x799d…d9abbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+2.4wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	0c	18,137$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.88	263	30%79 W · 184 L	+12.6wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2967…bd09backed Yes	1c	15,444$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.84	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18d4…1d3abacked Yes	1c	14,224$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.02	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	3c	10,470$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.82	792	31.1%246 W · 546 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3344…cabcbacked Yes	1c	9,800$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-2.1wins	-0.18per pick	34cpaid	-68.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed Yes	2c	6,315$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	98	38.8%38 W · 60 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc38…eef3backed Yes	2c	6,241$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.47	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes	2c	5,132$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.97	144	27.8%40 W · 104 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed Yes	1c	5,018$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.3	241	44.8%108 W · 133 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d9…c125backed Yes	2c	5,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3231…a113backed Yes	2c	4,585$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6faf…de48backed Yes	2c	4,545$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	202	24.8%50 W · 152 L	-15.8wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe5e4…f534backed Yes	1c	4,250$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.3	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b17…51b1backed Yes	0c	4,050$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.15	43	14%6 W · 37 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+41%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7259…61aabacked Yes	2c	4,000$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b6…6be8backed Yes	2c	3,277$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.54	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7040…81fabacked Yes	2c	2,726$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.43	141	16.3%23 W · 118 L	-5.7wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,430$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.26	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Yes	1c	2,400$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.2	471	27.8%131 W · 340 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x201d…41aabacked Yes	2c	2,304$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.17	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ed…6f16backed Yes	2c	2,184$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.5	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc29…f1bbbacked Yes	2c	1,572$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.58	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-89.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f60…b0a4backed Yes	3c	1,506$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-5.0wins	-0.16per pick	25cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes	2c	1,490$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.51	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4061…dde5backed Yes	1c	1,250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	157	22.3%35 W · 122 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e25…172fbacked Yes	2c	1,250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	1c	1,199$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.9	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a2f…5468backed Yes	1c	1,153$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	157	8.9%14 W · 143 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9e8…7b51backed Yes	1c	1,061$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.99	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b23…2a7cbacked Yes	2c	942.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Yes	2c	909.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	363	49.3%179 W · 184 L	+15.4wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b67…525dbacked Yes	2c	899.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.7	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-70.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71a5…b594backed Yes	1c	842.85$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	185	38.9%72 W · 113 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-12%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f7b…e79fbacked Yes	2c	781.37$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.24	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-83.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fa8…d720backed Yes	2c	747.62$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-72%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x68f0…7443backed Yes	2c	727.27$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	58	32.8%19 W · 39 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd5…d237backed Yes	2c	681.82$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xadf9…7614backed Yes	2c	577$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.54	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x211a…6ef4backed Yes	2c	556$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.23	60	36.7%22 W · 38 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac25…147abacked Yes	2c	500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	180	43.9%79 W · 101 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1373…482cbacked Yes	2c	500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-69.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa23d…da1fbacked Yes	3c	470.18$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d19…bf25backed Yes	2c	466.44$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	47.9%67 W · 73 L	-5.5wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 51 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event