Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc21bb025a9a77e8738c8133eda9dc49579344c62443535bf919591df3e9e0696

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 30, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $720,499
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $487,691

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $720,499 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8658…f20fbacked Yes	0c	121,965$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.31	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2275…fb3cbacked Yes	0c	95,123$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.73	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	2cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf49c…9786backed Yes	0c	49,288$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.58	152	9.9%15 W · 137 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2be2…5fa6backed Yes	0c	25,539$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.54	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	31cpaid	-49%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa9a…099fbacked Yes	0c	16,667$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	84	15.5%13 W · 71 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb696…4367backed Yes	0c	15,698$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.4	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	+2.4wins	+0.07per pick	35cpaid	+38.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1501…783fbacked Yes	0c	15,693$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.39	48	37.5%18 W · 30 L	+4.6wins	+0.10per pick	28cpaid	+71.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes	0c	12,631$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.63	38	2.6%1 W · 37 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	-83.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb03…9732backed Yes	0c	12,090$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	139	51.8%72 W · 67 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad1e…2ad4backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	60	33.3%20 W · 40 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-15%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b17…51b1backed Yes	0c	9,500$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	43	14%6 W · 37 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+41%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	0c	9,180$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.54	202	1.5%3 W · 199 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x612f…05d8backed Yes	1c	7,283$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa63f…4f7bbacked Yes	1c	5,791$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-3.8wins	-0.12per pick	28cpaid	-73%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x53eb…d2f6backed Yes	0c	5,335$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes	0c	4,900$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.21	120	25%30 W · 90 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7253…0558backed Yes	1c	3,388$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	4cpaid	-27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc575…376bbacked Yes	0c	2,937$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fa8…d720backed Yes	1c	2,276$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-72%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc29…e37dbacked Yes	1c	2,244$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.67	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed97…a1c8backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x569b…c66ebacked Yes	1c	1,867$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	144	22.2%32 W · 112 L	-10.5wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x33df…fb15backed Yes	1c	1,205$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	30cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 51 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event