Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2828d51d403c9317a50226752257eb5f4e9f85bb49ad6a191e5fba6eceb781c

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $630,207
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $86,491

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $630,207 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbd73…4da1backed Yes	0c	77,978$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	197	13.7%27 W · 170 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e6…7aa6backed Yes	0c	45,772$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.54	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7040…81fabacked Yes	0c	31,960$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.13	141	16.3%23 W · 118 L	-5.7wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf49c…9786backed Yes	3c	27,950$747 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$747.24	152	9.9%15 W · 137 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes	2c	25,000$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	96	27.1%26 W · 70 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	+1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Yes	2c	23,094$567 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$566.73	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+2.4wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	0c	21,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	170	5.9%10 W · 160 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf83e…e1f8backed Yes	0c	20,100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.1	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd914…0d9abacked Yes	2c	15,588$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	80	28.8%23 W · 57 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6700…acfebacked Yes	0c	14,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	66	15.2%10 W · 56 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes	1c	13,901$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.78	38	2.6%1 W · 37 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	-83.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	2c	13,496$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.21	245	39.6%97 W · 148 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa081…b4fbbacked Yes	0c	12,432$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-57.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a87…b9a9backed Yes	0c	10,713$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.47	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+37.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes	1c	10,283$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.57	144	27.8%40 W · 104 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	1c	10,198$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.55	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9449…d829backed Yes	0c	8,720$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.44	67	19.4%13 W · 54 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+63.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40d5…79a5backed Yes	2c	8,455$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	31cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes	1c	8,227$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1b4…8383backed Yes	1c	7,500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes	0c	6,167$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	54	1.9%1 W · 53 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-88%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94ad…6a30backed Yes	3c	5,950$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.17	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67d3…b524backed Yes	2c	5,882$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	99	39.4%39 W · 60 L	+5.5wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb64…5e23backed Yes	2c	5,221$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.76	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4061…dde5backed Yes	0c	4,588$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	157	22.3%35 W · 122 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes	0c	4,047$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.15	120	25%30 W · 90 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3da…4c50backed Yes	2c	4,003$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	116	43.1%50 W · 66 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92c7…0e11backed Yes	3c	4,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	65	56.9%37 W · 28 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x189e…64c3backed Yes	3c	4,000$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.45	50	22%11 W · 39 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa68…8d45backed Yes	1c	3,330$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.62	59	27.1%16 W · 43 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-25%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8188…0667backed Yes	2c	3,000$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6da5…be77backed Yes	3c	2,733$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.9	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3ed…df21backed Yes	2c	2,156$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb37…ff74backed Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	88	22.7%20 W · 68 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3109…4ef4backed Yes	3c	2,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	120	25.8%31 W · 89 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes	3c	2,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	209	32.5%68 W · 141 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88da…15c6backed Yes	2c	1,716$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	45	28.9%13 W · 32 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc871…5b9dbacked Yes	3c	1,667$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,614$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.33	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes	2c	1,459$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.56	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes	1c	1,280$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.14	1,945	42.7%831 W · 1,114 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	3c	1,082$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.66	792	31.1%246 W · 546 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x569b…c66ebacked Yes	5c	1,079$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.8	144	22.2%32 W · 112 L	-10.5wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x41da…0b58backed Yes	2c	1,073$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.11	62	8.1%5 W · 57 L	-3.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-73.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4747…3184backed Yes	2c	1,027$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.56	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa020…d807backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.91	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x575f…9287backed Yes	2c	1,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-3.4wins	-0.20per pick	32cpaid	-74.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x015f…0967backed Yes	3c	936.3$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.46	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fa8…d720backed Yes	3c	887.92$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-72%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34e…d4d5backed Yes	3c	769.23$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-65.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b11…9f63backed Yes	3c	706.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	96	33.3%32 W · 64 L	-6.1wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3b…a64fbacked Yes	7c	701.95$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.7wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes	2c	700$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-88.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe89f…b775backed Yes	3c	636.25$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.11per pick	9cpaid	+401.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff5…50eabacked Yes	3c	600$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.19per pick	6cpaid	+56.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d3…0698backed Yes	3c	592.23$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.07	60	43.3%26 W · 34 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a2f…5468backed Yes	2c	533$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	157	8.9%14 W · 143 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf45…5903backed Yes	3c	520$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	73	42.5%31 W · 42 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed Yes	3c	500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	70	61.4%43 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	-13%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes	3c	500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	365	39.7%145 W · 220 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf16…7428backed Yes	3c	400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b2…5805backed Yes	3c	400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	156	35.9%56 W · 100 L	-12.8wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xce05…9176backed Yes	3c	400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	86	32.6%28 W · 58 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ce3…2317backed Yes	3c	400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	83	34.9%29 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa56f…149bbacked Yes	3c	400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa321…1557backed Yes	3c	400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcff1…f8debacked Yes	5c	254.76$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	91	31.9%29 W · 62 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0205…82f1backed Yes	4c	248.4$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	25	36%9 W · 16 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	27cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 51 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event