Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x651f04bb7e59a6868a3d6c11e234f4fb5e12e38ff735360c54752841fc1798c9

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $484,391
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $128,483

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $484,391 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf49c…9786backed Yes	0c	100,157$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.16	152	9.9%15 W · 137 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2275…fb3cbacked Yes	0c	50,900$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.7	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	2cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb048…7f07backed Yes	0c	34,651$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.65	91	48.4%44 W · 47 L	+4.7wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb37…ff74backed Yes	0c	25,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	88	22.7%20 W · 68 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0fd…8ca0backed Yes	0c	24,396$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.39	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2362…2ec5backed Yes	0c	21,728$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.73	44	2.3%1 W · 43 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-96.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8798…76cebacked Yes	0c	15,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	80	13.8%11 W · 69 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes	1c	10,743$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.44	144	27.8%40 W · 104 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc31a…bfb2backed Yes	2c	10,588$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	83	20.5%17 W · 66 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x205b…8edfbacked Yes	0c	10,010$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	38	2.6%1 W · 37 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	-83.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7040…81fabacked Yes	1c	7,907$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.71	141	16.3%23 W · 118 L	-5.7wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8105…955abacked Yes	2c	6,630$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	30cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e40…c827backed Yes	2c	5,912$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.12per pick	22cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	0c	5,191$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.01	202	1.5%3 W · 199 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	50	14%7 W · 43 L	-7.2wins	-0.14per pick	28cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x18d4…1d3abacked Yes	2c	4,500$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes	2c	4,180$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.19	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed8c…e9eabacked Yes	2c	1,778$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-72.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fa8…d720backed Yes	2c	1,318$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.95	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-72%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbea…ea49backed Yes	1c	1,301$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.69	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe857…7b3bbacked Yes	2c	1,111$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	59	32.2%19 W · 40 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b9…e354backed Yes	2c	1,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.71	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-2.2wins	-0.10per pick	34cpaid	-55.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 51 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event