Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c58e8986995e05c30e64d03acebcb53c9e78643ece47ff2d3dbb1f3c2c7fd2d

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,652,858
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,275,686

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,652,858 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2275…fb3cbacked Yes	0c	287,251$575 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$574.5	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	2cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a2f…b61bbacked Yes	0c	278,930$608 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$608.44	16	0%0 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Yes	0c	82,500$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.5	48	43.8%21 W · 27 L	-4.0wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8658…f20fbacked Yes	0c	48,035$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.31	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…86d3backed Yes	0c	41,236$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.24	65	15.4%10 W · 55 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	+66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes	0c	21,111$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.11	100	12%12 W · 88 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-46.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x799d…d9abbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+2.4wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5962…119bbacked Yes	1c	18,551$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.76	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	0c	14,861$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.73	202	1.5%3 W · 199 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes	2c	14,357$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.36	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	0c	11,250$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.07	263	30%79 W · 184 L	+12.6wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0af8…8973backed Yes	1c	10,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	59	66.1%39 W · 20 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8429…642fbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	56	39.3%22 W · 34 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb015…b5eabacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b17…51b1backed Yes	1c	7,358$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.62	43	14%6 W · 37 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+41%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes	0c	6,949$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.41	144	27.8%40 W · 104 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9449…d829backed Yes	0c	3,800$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	67	19.4%13 W · 54 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+63.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7040…81fabacked Yes	1c	3,589$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.84	141	16.3%23 W · 118 L	-5.7wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa63f…4f7bbacked Yes	1c	2,316$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-3.8wins	-0.12per pick	28cpaid	-73%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4fa8…d720backed Yes	1c	1,785$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-72%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes	1c	1,229$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-88.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed Yes	1c	1,098$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.28	464	64.9%301 W · 163 L	+26.6wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x569b…c66ebacked Yes	1c	1,071$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	144	22.2%32 W · 112 L	-10.5wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4285…5c89backed Yes	1c	735.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed No	55c	19.64$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.84	272	55.9%152 W · 120 L	+36.1wins	+0.13per pick	43cpaid	+49.8%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 51 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event