Spread: Egypt (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fe147be1e3b7c15a681b240eed3b715b8bd94defba50e99a7e0376039d6c304

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Belgiumof Egypt, Belgium
Resolved: Jun 15, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $202,452
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $200,109

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,452 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Egypt	13c	15,478$2,027 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,026.98	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe708…c3aabacked Egypt	4c	8,453$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd995…2b51backed Egypt	12c	8,190$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	46	6.5%3 W · 43 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-88.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Egypt	5c	7,378$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.81	161	16.1%26 W · 135 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	+52.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Egypt	4c	7,111$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.73	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37ae…1002backed Egypt	14c	6,931$948 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$948.26	249	17.7%44 W · 205 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Egypt	10c	6,855$654 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$653.98	1,686	20.6%347 W · 1,339 L	-28.4wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c09…3fd2backed Egypt	14c	6,632$943 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$942.95	27	37%10 W · 17 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Egypt	5c	5,967$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.06	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Egypt	14c	4,763$649 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$649.49	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Egypt	5c	2,968$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.41	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Egypt	4c	2,849$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.49	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Egypt	4c	2,609$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.33	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa6…bfd5backed Egypt	9c	2,477$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219	173	9.2%16 W · 157 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Egypt	4c	2,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	385	26.8%103 W · 282 L	-9.1wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bb6…9647backed Egypt	5c	1,934$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.7	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Egypt	11c	1,672$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.75	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Egypt	9c	1,629$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.95	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Egypt	14c	1,500$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	470	32.8%154 W · 316 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf36e…f91cbacked Egypt	14c	1,302$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.86	154	18.8%29 W · 125 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf28…b40ebacked Egypt	14c	1,243$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.66	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80ef…6d36backed Egypt	5c	1,050$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.2	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95ff…f2bebacked Egypt	5c	1,020$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	239	29.7%71 W · 168 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd546…657bbacked Egypt	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	306	7.8%24 W · 282 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x587c…9c4ebacked Egypt	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	100	19%19 W · 81 L	-11.2wins	-0.11per pick	30cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7c41…eeb9backed Egypt	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	80	26.3%21 W · 59 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	+6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x425b…dbfdbacked Egypt	18c	949.22$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.16	68	36.8%25 W · 43 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Egypt	4c	930.21$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.94	70	37.1%26 W · 44 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x361b…74febacked Egypt	3c	852.5$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.86	510	32.5%166 W · 344 L	-9.1wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e2a…7f8bbacked Egypt	12c	838.77$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	86	51.2%44 W · 42 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Egypt	10c	826.09$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.61	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8325…19ccbacked Egypt	2c	824.42$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.37	668	46.7%312 W · 356 L	+45.9wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Egypt	12c	815.14$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.83	1,627	32.1%523 W · 1,104 L	+4.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0cff…15d1backed Egypt	4c	776.39$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	112	42.9%48 W · 64 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Egypt	4c	698$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.92	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4847…a7a2backed Egypt	5c	662$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.1	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Egypt	5c	633$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.65	1,985	32.5%645 W · 1,340 L	-47.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Egypt	16c	621.14$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.3	1,438	40.1%576 W · 862 L	-40.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdecf…caf2backed Egypt	16c	617.06$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.73	136	53.7%73 W · 63 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Egypt	15c	616$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.6	1,380	40.2%555 W · 825 L	-51.6wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-23%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x95c5…bd53backed Egypt	14c	576.13$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.51	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	18cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b3c…3c8ebacked Egypt	3c	549.03$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	38cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f17…b55dbacked Egypt	15c	519$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.28	121	45.5%55 W · 66 L	+9.0wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x786d…b89bbacked Egypt	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	522	17.4%91 W · 431 L	-11.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dab…07efbacked Egypt	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc50b…1fd9backed Egypt	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	57	14%8 W · 49 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc6b…8115backed Egypt	12c	394.42$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	229	14%32 W · 197 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d4e…4accbacked Egypt	4c	375$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	81	21%17 W · 64 L	-9.3wins	-0.11per pick	32cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3561…f1b7backed Egypt	4c	357.77$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.17	950	37.5%356 W · 594 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1649…d118backed Egypt	14c	352.01$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.93	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf6…82c8backed Egypt	15c	344.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-2.5wins	-0.21per pick	38cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x42ba…7df5backed Egypt	11c	340.54$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.14	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-28%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Egypt	5c	326.51$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.15	54	1.9%1 W · 53 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	6cpaid	-92.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf81a…719abacked Egypt	15c	321.87$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.28	136	23.5%32 W · 104 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-22%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…8b2bbacked Egypt	11c	321.1$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	45	31.1%14 W · 31 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81ed…59f5backed Egypt	16c	306.19$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.99	608	21.9%133 W · 475 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc556…958dbacked Egypt	12c	275$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	82	36.6%30 W · 52 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x72fb…e19abacked Egypt	12c	252.1$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	87	31%27 W · 60 L	-5.5wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe196…7976backed Egypt	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	235	28.1%66 W · 169 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x593c…dae0backed Egypt	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bdb…2e12backed Egypt	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Egypt	14c	194.24$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	514	29.4%151 W · 363 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked Egypt	16c	190$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.59	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-4.3wins	-0.13per pick	21cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb124…7380backed Egypt	11c	183.08$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	345	37.1%128 W · 217 L	-14.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Egypt	11c	171.52$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	248	40.3%100 W · 148 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e03…beaabacked Egypt	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	89	43.8%39 W · 50 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3daf…19ebbacked Egypt	14c	140$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	534	36%192 W · 342 L	+12.3wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Egypt	12c	139.97$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.38	477	44.2%211 W · 266 L	+9.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2484…7780backed Egypt	11c	136.87$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	51	33.3%17 W · 34 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x007b…1fd2backed Egypt	12c	133.32$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	109	47.7%52 W · 57 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e1…99dbbacked Egypt	14c	133$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.53	580	49.1%285 W · 295 L	+7.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7203…795abacked Egypt	9c	127.8$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.11	70	57.1%40 W · 30 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba42…2404backed Egypt	12c	126.05$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-16%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1870…f3e5backed Egypt	17c	117.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd93…56c0backed Egypt	9c	115$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.19	101	57.4%58 W · 43 L	+5.3wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f48…0e01backed Egypt	15c	113.33$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	151	30.5%46 W · 105 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Egypt	13c	108.01$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.56	1,252	39.2%491 W · 761 L	+6.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x4629…ab9abacked Egypt	14c	107.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9103…4752backed Egypt	15c	101.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	41cpaid	+42.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Egypt	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.66	192	24.5%47 W · 145 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99ef…fefdbacked Egypt	17c	88.24$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	54	27.8%15 W · 39 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x564d…2076backed Egypt	12c	83.57$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+1.8wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Egypt	16c	75$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	155	43.9%68 W · 87 L	+9.0wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Egypt (-1.5)this page
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5Over won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5Over won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5Over won
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5Over won
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5Under won
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)Egypt won
Spread: Belgium (-2.5)Egypt won
Spread: Egypt (-2.5)Belgium won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Egypt (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event