Spread: Belgium (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52a1585d4a602aa02beb1f446d10b7884e8f2feff3ba96845c1f2275dcaf45b6

Rebuilt 27 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Egyptof Belgium, Egypt
Resolved: Jun 15, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $203,149
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $196,666

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,149 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9ec6…eda9backed Belgium	18c	16,798$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Belgium	18c	12,179$2,153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,152.78	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Belgium	14c	11,361$1,592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,592.13	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Belgium	16c	8,844$1,453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,452.64	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Belgium	17c	7,742$1,316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,316.46	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Belgium	12c	6,904$807 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$806.67	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37ae…1002backed Belgium	17c	5,761$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	249	17.7%44 W · 205 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d2b…50e0backed Belgium	0c	5,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Belgium	17c	3,118$534 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$534.46	144	28.5%41 W · 103 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd34a…78c7backed Belgium	17c	3,000$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510	137	21.2%29 W · 108 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+27.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ef…6d36backed Belgium	1c	2,819$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.43	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05d5…db37backed Belgium	18c	2,711$488 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$487.99	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Belgium	12c	2,332$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.4	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Belgium	17c	2,275$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.25	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Belgium	17c	2,109$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.53	2,271	39.5%896 W · 1,375 L	+10.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Belgium	17c	1,962$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.49	144	33.3%48 W · 96 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Belgium	16c	1,958$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.28	716	38.4%275 W · 441 L	+8.7wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Belgium	17c	1,765$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	363	49.3%179 W · 184 L	+15.4wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Belgium	17c	1,704$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.37	1,686	20.6%347 W · 1,339 L	-28.4wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a68…ad4cbacked Belgium	18c	1,663$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.41	41	19.5%8 W · 33 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x87b6…4ababacked Belgium	16c	1,444$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.04	450	38.2%172 W · 278 L	-28.4wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-18%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Belgium	17c	1,396$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.71	3,077	47%1,447 W · 1,630 L	-11.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x101d…cad2backed Belgium	9c	1,235$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.12	112	24.1%27 W · 85 L	-10.3wins	-0.09per pick	33cpaid	-28%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Belgium	12c	1,068$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.92	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Belgium	7c	943.68$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.84	68	35.3%24 W · 44 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa8f…14d1backed Belgium	13c	852.11$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.98	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Belgium	16c	804.17$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.15	1,627	32.1%523 W · 1,104 L	+4.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x260c…7130backed Belgium	17c	752.94$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.12per pick	25cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2613…12bdbacked Belgium	16c	625$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	140	35.7%50 W · 90 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0abb…d188backed Belgium	18c	598.89$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.18	49	40.8%20 W · 29 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e89…3e0abacked Belgium	17c	588.24$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	267	16.1%43 W · 224 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95c5…bd53backed Belgium	17c	588.24$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	18cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21f7…1b34backed Belgium	18c	573.94$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.31	224	36.6%82 W · 142 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Belgium	10c	563.85$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.64	1,711	35.2%603 W · 1,108 L	-68.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce00…7d1dbacked Belgium	18c	555.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	226	43.4%98 W · 128 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49e4…10ecbacked Belgium	18c	533.33$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf713…a97bbacked Belgium	16c	500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	63	31.7%20 W · 43 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked Belgium	18c	444.44$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Belgium	16c	419.98$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	368	38.6%142 W · 226 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Belgium	5c	353.72$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.69	2,533	46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L	+12.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Belgium	16c	335.29$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.47	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Belgium	17c	326.71$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.3	3,213	47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Belgium	12c	317$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.16	658	35%230 W · 428 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b02…083abacked Belgium	18c	277.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	62	25.8%16 W · 46 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Belgium	17c	253$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.01	1,985	32.5%645 W · 1,340 L	-47.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d8d…0b73backed Belgium	18c	222.22$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	114	45.6%52 W · 62 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8325…19ccbacked Belgium	6c	200.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.65	668	46.7%312 W · 356 L	+45.9wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0811…1870backed Belgium	16c	187.5$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	56	32.1%18 W · 38 L	-9.8wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xe700…7005backed Belgium	14c	187.5$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.25	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08b3…48a9backed Belgium	17c	180.15$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	125	40%50 W · 75 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c3…2020backed Belgium	17c	176.47$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	84	50%42 W · 42 L	+5.4wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ecf…75d2backed Belgium	17c	175.12$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.77	123	40.7%50 W · 73 L	-5.2wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ba6…680dbacked Belgium	18c	166.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	99	37.4%37 W · 62 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65b6…8b4cbacked Belgium	17c	135.29$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-46%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3104…bd68backed Belgium	17c	135.29$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d4…2ad9backed Belgium	17c	130$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.1	136	38.2%52 W · 84 L	+5.9wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cfd…3d84backed Belgium	16c	124.95$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	373	23.1%86 W · 287 L	-9.1wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x069a…7c82backed Belgium	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	43.4%23 W · 30 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+10%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ad1…a4b6backed Belgium	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	47	17%8 W · 39 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37a0…8423backed Belgium	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	189	42.3%80 W · 109 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0341…9294backed Belgium	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	494	26.7%132 W · 362 L	-9.8wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3771…54b3backed Belgium	17c	105.88$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	15cpaid	+152.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa38…99debacked Belgium	17c	105.88$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…47e7backed Belgium	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	65	16.9%11 W · 54 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Belgium	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	477	44.2%211 W · 266 L	+9.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Belgium	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Belgium	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	188	22.3%42 W · 146 L	-16.3wins	-0.09per pick	31cpaid	-40%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc214…6a42backed Belgium	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	94	41.5%39 W · 55 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5073…59f0backed Belgium	17c	99.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	51	56.9%29 W · 22 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dca…64e9backed Belgium	17c	99.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	39	23.1%9 W · 30 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Belgium	17c	99.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	81	19.8%16 W · 65 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd948…f579backed Belgium	16c	93.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	63	28.6%18 W · 45 L	+5.0wins	+0.08per pick	21cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e59…51f2backed Belgium	18c	83.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	74	41.9%31 W · 43 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb682…2d79backed Belgium	17c	83.18$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.14	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-57%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75b0…7db2backed Belgium	18c	72.22$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	104	51.9%54 W · 50 L	+5.1wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd60f…ba25backed Belgium	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-3.0wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4855…8643backed Belgium	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	43	23.3%10 W · 33 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x137f…ad22backed Belgium	18c	62.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.22	45	40%18 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9c…edeebacked Belgium	18c	61.11$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d2a…7682backed Belgium	18c	56.45$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.16	285	45.6%130 W · 155 L	-10.3wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Belgium (-2.5)this page
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5Over won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5Over won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5Over won
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5Over won
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5Under won
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)Egypt won
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)Belgium won
Spread: Egypt (-2.5)Belgium won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Belgium (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event