Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea9ef5e2698c3713b8878b402467b802244fbc6f7b688990b1c5fac5db86cff0

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 15, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $241,033
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $249,221

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $241,033 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Over	8c	55,707$4,309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,308.62	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	11c	10,627$1,210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,209.64	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over	14c	10,620$1,487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,486.78	592	30.1%178 W · 414 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec6…eda9backed Over	13c	7,611$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over	13c	6,122$783 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$782.68	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Over	2c	5,526$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.45	64	29.7%19 W · 45 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over	7c	4,928$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.89	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over	8c	3,718$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.84	1,627	32.1%523 W · 1,104 L	+4.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Over	12c	2,917$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	472	35%165 W · 307 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	11c	2,873$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.48	1,711	35.2%603 W · 1,108 L	-68.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Over	14c	2,852$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.25	494	41.5%205 W · 289 L	+27.7wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e59…2a66backed Over	10c	2,814$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.67	1,063	31.7%337 W · 726 L	-33.7wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	13c	2,724$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.88	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37ae…1002backed Over	14c	2,667$373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.32	249	17.7%44 W · 205 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Over	13c	2,244$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.12	1,985	32.5%645 W · 1,340 L	-47.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over	14c	2,143$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.99	289	64.4%186 W · 103 L	+42.6wins	+0.15per pick	50cpaid	+44.6%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Over	12c	1,875$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	436	35.8%156 W · 280 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over	14c	1,555$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.68	258	65.9%170 W · 88 L	+40.1wins	+0.16per pick	50cpaid	+54.4%equal weight	66+0.14 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over	14c	1,429$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.99	356	58.7%209 W · 147 L	+35.0wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+28%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	10c	1,377$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.86	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over	4c	1,341$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.12	1,252	39.2%491 W · 761 L	+6.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over	13c	1,250$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.51	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over	13c	1,242$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.44	146	12.3%18 W · 128 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over	12c	1,134$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.29	1,686	20.6%347 W · 1,339 L	-28.4wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d78…ffa6backed Over	13c	1,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	79	25.3%20 W · 59 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9c…8620backed Over	5c	946.33$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.53	337	40.4%136 W · 201 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9837…ad59backed Over	14c	785.71$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	145	34.5%50 W · 95 L	-7.4wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-22%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9c3…dbc7backed Over	13c	769.23$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	94	39.4%37 W · 57 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…d743backed Over	14c	728.57$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	71	22.5%16 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x82c0…02fdbacked Over	14c	714.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	74	24.3%18 W · 56 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Over	12c	526.99$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.24	1,045	29.3%306 W · 739 L	-10.8wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0a8…2282backed Over	19c	518.15$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.45	80	36.3%29 W · 51 L	-6.6wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x191e…dd9ebacked Over	14c	443.57$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.1	88	31.8%28 W · 60 L	-5.8wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x742d…020dbacked Over	14c	405.36$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.75	30	20%6 W · 24 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Over	13c	400$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,380	40.2%555 W · 825 L	-51.6wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-23%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9510…0d7abacked Over	13c	384.62$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Over	13c	353$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.89	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4433…9d34backed Over	13c	347.77$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.21	788	35.3%278 W · 510 L	+9.6wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3109…4ef4backed Over	13c	333.69$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.38	120	25.8%31 W · 89 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Over	13c	333.57$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.84	753	35.6%268 W · 485 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1cd…896abacked Over	14c	321.43$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	48	31.3%15 W · 33 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb42b…afe0backed Over	13c	308.03$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.04	41	29.3%12 W · 29 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08f5…28e0backed Over	14c	285.71$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over	9c	236.17$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.82	70	37.1%26 W · 44 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Over	13c	230.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	438	19.2%84 W · 354 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x805b…ee0cbacked Over	11c	225$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.75	238	44.1%105 W · 133 L	-7.8wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4108…a80dbacked Over	8c	219.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.2	323	17.6%57 W · 266 L	-43.8wins	-0.14per pick	31cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Over	13c	214.69$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.91	847	51%432 W · 415 L	+10.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over	13c	214.69$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.91	481	52.4%252 W · 229 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52e5…f4dcbacked Over	14c	214.29$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	41cpaid	-45.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8409…753dbacked Over	13c	205.35$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.7	120	20%24 W · 96 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7b74…0482backed Over	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	265	37.7%100 W · 165 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Over	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	368	38.6%142 W · 226 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Over	13c	199.98$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	188	22.3%42 W · 146 L	-16.3wins	-0.09per pick	31cpaid	-40%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9e35…3655backed Over	13c	192.31$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	61	23%14 W · 47 L	-4.7wins	-0.08per pick	31cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Over	8c	184.25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.74	311	49.5%154 W · 157 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9637…a576backed Over	14c	178.57$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	451	20.6%93 W · 358 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed97…a1c8backed Over	14c	178.57$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e3…411bbacked Over	13c	161.54$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	84	23.8%20 W · 64 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x786d…b89bbacked Over	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	522	17.4%91 W · 431 L	-11.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb25…f567backed Over	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	43	46.5%20 W · 23 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed Over	13c	150$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	189	11.1%21 W · 168 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x71eb…4c2dbacked Over	13c	149.69$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.46	101	47.5%48 W · 53 L	+8.1wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x764f…64a1backed Over	10c	148$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	177	32.2%57 W · 120 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ad1…a4b6backed Over	21c	143.33$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	47	17%8 W · 39 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f5d…7590backed Over	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	46	32.6%15 W · 31 L	+4.1wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe564…221abacked Over	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	68	29.4%20 W · 48 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	77c	120$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.6	2,533	46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L	+12.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x410f…57febacked Over	17c	115.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	40	42.5%17 W · 23 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Over	18c	109.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.74	248	40.3%100 W · 148 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0341…9294backed Over	14c	107.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	494	26.7%132 W · 362 L	-9.8wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6332…4576backed Over	10c	102.6$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	150	48%72 W · 78 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	465	25.4%118 W · 347 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x387a…8eaebacked Over	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	329	28%92 W · 237 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8c…79bdbacked Over	15c	81$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	274	45.3%124 W · 150 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over	17c	81$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.77	477	44.2%211 W · 266 L	+9.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fcc…7ea1backed Over	14c	78.57$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	28cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1597…6edebacked Over	21c	71$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.91	470	29.1%137 W · 333 L	-14.2wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under	80c	36$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	1,306	44.7%584 W · 722 L	-9.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Under	77c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.9	464	45.5%211 W · 253 L	-1.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x912f…b25bbacked Under	80c	20.5$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.1	91	44%40 W · 51 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5this page
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5Over won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5Over won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5Over won
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5Over won
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5Under won
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5Under won
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)Egypt won
Spread: Belgium (-2.5)Egypt won
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)Belgium won
Spread: Egypt (-2.5)Belgium won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event