TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Khamenei public appearance by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$261,098
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$238,567

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $261,098 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d05…6a81backed No0c17,878$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4843212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b22…754cbacked No0c17,413$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb79f…d749backed No0c16,794$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.63660%0 W · 66 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c4f…0f33backed Yes18c10,855$1,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,946.092369.6%16 W · 7 L+5.0wins+0.22per pick48cpaid+51.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xc75d…dcfabacked No0c10,200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-66.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8125…8c8abacked No0c10,067$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45ef…459dbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56f0…14ffbacked No0c9,770$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.42633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b04…ae4dbacked No0c8,122$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-62.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed Yes79c7,010$5,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,471.2311559.1%68 W · 47 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcccf…1b79backed No1c6,997$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No21c6,601$1,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,386.29535.8%34 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed No0c5,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16352.9%1 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-94.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8d4…e3dbbacked No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a62…c009backed No0c4,581$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a3e…8745backed No0c4,096$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc35…4e05backed No1c3,591$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes25c3,437$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,572.8845843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6187…e57fbacked No0c2,579$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.84170%0 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc0…8a4dbacked No10c2,420$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.291910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-76.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No79c2,391$1,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,891.4364339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5878…ed39backed No1c2,313$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x626d…ff68backed No74c2,273$1,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.012035%7 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-36%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12f5…ef76backed Yes16c1,577$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+108.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd230…13debacked No20c1,514$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No22c1,362$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.647439.2%29 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.20per pick19cpaid+102%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xe632…84f9backed No16c1,215$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No79c1,150$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.39955.6%55 W · 44 L+10.5wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x7c6c…0e79backed No72c1,103$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.06944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes17c970.38$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.0220247%95 W · 107 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cd7…9c85backed No75c933.53$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.152552%13 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes51c899.76$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.0240939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes28c847.39$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.717142.3%30 W · 41 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceb5…4438backed Yes35c824.07$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.022642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No21c760$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.615625%39 W · 117 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+79.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes26c732.98$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.7435355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4ef1…d333backed Yes17c643.09$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.131421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No2c570.62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.452384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes26c554.99$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.6926423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8cc…ae8dbacked No5c550.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-40.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes17c493.28$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.1748630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes18c483.82$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.0711141.4%46 W · 65 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdf7…824ebacked No18c449.11$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes18c443.75$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.8134143.4%148 W · 193 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f1e…b799backed No70c348.59$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.621656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes15c344.38$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.3258927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes17c342.85$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.865922%13 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes22c332.67$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.7629129.9%87 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed Yes17c331.34$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.1919056.3%107 W · 83 L+16.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes28c329.67$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.0611350.4%57 W · 56 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes21c316.12$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.1326138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes17c304.91$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.547012.9%9 W · 61 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-60.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No15c300.32$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6510244.1%45 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed Yes16c300$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25110743%46 W · 61 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes70c282$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.125913.6%8 W · 51 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-59.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed No75c274.23$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.671145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+25.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x588c…1bf4backed No78c256.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007851.3%40 W · 38 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes10c250$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2252326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes32c231.16$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.0777636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes19c217.2$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.3467841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2f…2bc6backed Yes17c204.58$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.316631.8%21 W · 45 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8196…ab69backed Yes79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424845.8%22 W · 26 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd061…d5e4backed Yes18c200$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1643625%9 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes24c190$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.127047.8%129 W · 141 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb3c…0f0ebacked Yes18c183.65$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+178.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3240…5d25backed Yes16c176.27$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.073948.7%19 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+25.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7130…70e4backed Yes18c168.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.331136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick20cpaid+31.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes22c165.38$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.3819534.4%67 W · 128 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4616…66e6backed Yes19c164.15$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.224445.5%20 W · 24 L+8.0wins+0.18per pick27cpaid+109.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes34c162$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.2847334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2be…66b0backed No75c160$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Yes32c160$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.47838.5%30 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes18c156$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.486542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes25c153.4$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.4989617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3dbb…49a2backed No65c153.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No8c149.92$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.997135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes9c148.65$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.2711424.6%28 W · 86 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83fc…2bedbacked No65c142$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6840%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a5d…9ea3backed No80c140$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.6944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick65cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb18…57ecbacked Yes79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.581428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6327…cfe1backed Yes18c123.44$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.22333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+85.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9916…54dcbacked Yes17c117.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.653444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes24c111.06$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.1133741.2%139 W · 198 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xffbc…b889backed No73c110.93$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.78837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes27c102.46$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.7985725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x29a1…dbc1backed No75c101.24$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc763…e8d3backed No80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80425%1 W · 3 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick80cpaid-68.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7856…e764backed Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick23cpaid+199.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x778f…86bebacked No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.45450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+193.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeee4…1cefbacked Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x878d…1a9bbacked No61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.384628.3%13 W · 33 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-24.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xed4f…e25abacked Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+48.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68ca…13d2backed No79c95.04$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15d4…56a2backed Yes27c94.07$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.071435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x370b…5f2cbacked No75c93.33$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb3e…e4bfbacked No73c82.19$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked Yes18c80$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6617934.6%62 W · 117 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff2…b81fbacked No71c73.18$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-73.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes16c70$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.55955.9%33 W · 26 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+28.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5435…3945backed Yes18c70$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+177.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.