France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbadba2189a1fe0c3fa96c7195d39ed6a55d3a91aa58da5aab7a3a47eb53d7041

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $150,008
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $174,301

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,008 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	18c	43,728$7,868 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,868.26	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under	14c	19,919$2,689 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,689.26	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under	16c	14,069$2,247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,246.63	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb627…68b5backed Over	71c	1,999$1,419 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$579.73	161	52.2%84 W · 77 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x78c1…473ebacked Under	11c	1,992$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.12	513	15.6%80 W · 433 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under	15c	1,723$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.49	2,271	39.5%896 W · 1,375 L	+10.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7409…65a6backed Over	60c	1,674$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$673.74	122	66.4%81 W · 41 L	+12.8wins	+0.10per pick	56cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under	38c	1,613$607 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$606.57	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Under	11c	1,604$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.39	207	24.6%51 W · 156 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under	17c	1,575$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.74	1,941	35.5%690 W · 1,251 L	-25.4wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa209…ffbebacked Over	61c	1,522$928 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$593.58	594	53.4%317 W · 277 L	+43.8wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over	67c	1,291$861 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$429.4	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x24ae…4c80backed Under	28c	1,260$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.52	148	56.8%84 W · 64 L	+20.7wins	+0.14per pick	43cpaid	+59.5%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under	14c	1,256$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.5	2,819	44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L	-36.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c82…9728backed Over	80c	1,130$904 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$226	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	39c	1,024$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.56	2,533	46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L	+12.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Under	12c	1,010$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.37	1,702	36.7%625 W · 1,077 L	-31.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked Under	13c	1,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	644	43.3%279 W · 365 L	-10.9wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…93fcbacked Under	11c	999.95$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.99	112	43.8%49 W · 63 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	78c	976.62$759 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$218.1	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43e3…43f7backed Under	12c	900$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	232	30.2%70 W · 162 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01ee…6ab0backed Over	57c	701.75$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$301.75	127	63.8%81 W · 46 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	58cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Under	12c	699.98$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	368	38.6%142 W · 226 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed Under	12c	672.4$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.44	1,135	40.2%456 W · 679 L	+5.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under	12c	609.76$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.19	1,945	42.7%831 W · 1,114 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under	12c	603.36$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.42	3,077	47%1,447 W · 1,630 L	-11.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6648…4798backed Over	60c	599.99$362 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$238	77	48.1%37 W · 40 L	+6.8wins	+0.09per pick	39cpaid	+27%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b6d…27bbbacked Under	35c	574.06$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	42	38.1%16 W · 26 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16c8…1badbacked Over	55c	504.96$278 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$227.23	197	42.1%83 W · 114 L	-11.1wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under	12c	498.18$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.86	3,213	47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e1…99dbbacked Under	44c	459.99$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.4	580	49.1%285 W · 295 L	+7.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5068…13a1backed Under	17c	459.53$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+2.3wins	+0.18per pick	36cpaid	+48.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Over	71c	427$305 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.94	1,380	40.2%555 W · 825 L	-51.6wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-23%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	21c	374.45$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.85	1,711	35.2%603 W · 1,108 L	-68.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86a6…1b3ebacked Under	33c	333.94$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.98	452	48.9%221 W · 231 L	+7.7wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Over	62c	297.96$184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.48	431	45.2%195 W · 236 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf8c…a4edbacked Over	73c	274.11$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.11	24	66.7%16 W · 8 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9535…ccdcbacked Under	15c	270$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	+90%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ab…8432backed Over	61c	245.9$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.9	68	38.2%26 W · 42 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0422…ae21backed Over	63c	240.99$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.4	60	45%27 W · 33 L	-5.7wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3561…f1b7backed Under	12c	211.32$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.52	950	37.5%356 W · 594 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e2d…fb60backed Over	59c	190$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.9	118	46.6%55 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb07e…2b92backed Under	39c	189.71$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.98	89	42.7%38 W · 51 L	-7.3wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdfba…8378backed Over	61c	181.2$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.07	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-21%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdf4…40fabacked Over	57c	180$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.4	73	47.9%35 W · 38 L	-4.5wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb36e…538fbacked Over	57c	175.44$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.44	108	45.4%49 W · 59 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8194…5368backed Under	36c	167.12$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	35	60%21 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x367f…18b5backed Over	67c	164.39$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.25	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	33cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc51b…d260backed Under	34c	163.38$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.55	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-2.4wins	-0.17per pick	53cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over	69c	163.19$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.06	1,601	47.8%765 W · 836 L	+51.5wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba5a…344cbacked Over	70c	160.67$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.29	79	43%34 W · 45 L	-5.3wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb51f…b7dbbacked Over	73c	140$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.8	49	53.1%26 W · 23 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2be3…e50dbacked Under	15c	134$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x772e…a81fbacked Under	12c	125$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf79c…cb96backed Under	12c	120$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.05	920	38.5%354 W · 566 L	-21.8wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7418…251fbacked Over	60c	109.58$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.83	111	67.6%75 W · 36 L	+9.2wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf971…82e4backed Under	39c	101.87$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-3.3wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x542b…8b2ebacked Under	33c	100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over	73c	94.08$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.13	2,793	46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L	-10.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x457a…37d5backed Under	14c	92.86$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	106	44.3%47 W · 59 L	-3.7wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d50…d283backed Under	19c	89.38$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.29	475	46.1%219 W · 256 L	-15.8wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under	17c	87$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.37	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x841a…61adbacked Under	33c	81.82$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	147	46.9%69 W · 78 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x660f…ec30backed Over	67c	74.85$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.85	55	65.5%36 W · 19 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	63cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf0b…3284backed Under	36c	71.44$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.72	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c9b…7349backed Over	73c	68.49$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.49	126	48.4%61 W · 65 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd68d…1f62backed Under	33c	60$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	50cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over	75c	59.37$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.62	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Over	71c	54.81$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.8	1,795	44.2%794 W · 1,001 L	-12.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Over	74c	50$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.01	1,354	38.9%527 W · 827 L	-55.8wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ba7…106ebacked Over	68c	36.76$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.76	32	50%16 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf609…e68bbacked Over	67c	33$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.89	206	52.9%109 W · 97 L	+14.1wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6bdb…9b4abacked Over	62c	32.26$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.26	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.10per pick	54cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a67…52edbacked Over	56c	30.02$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.21	109	52.3%57 W · 52 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xade7…9d34backed Over	63c	29.99$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11	222	58.6%130 W · 92 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8df8…4294backed Over	70c	28.17$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.45	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc21d…727ebacked Over	68c	27.95$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.87	109	52.3%57 W · 52 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67d3…cbb9backed Over	55c	27.45$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.45	26	61.5%16 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	63cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc33…729cbacked Over	79c	25.59$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.49	54	59.3%32 W · 22 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	64cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e4d…7789backed Over	68c	25.01$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.05	10	90%9 W · 1 L	+3.3wins	+0.33per pick	57cpaid	+58.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbd5e…991bbacked Over	60c	25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.24per pick	59cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe18c…dfa5backed Over	61c	24.59$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.59	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+4.0wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xeac6…6cf8backed Over	64c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.1	77	45.5%35 W · 42 L	+2.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8010…04e4backed Over	61c	19.26$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.51	102	73.5%75 W · 27 L	+15.0wins	+0.15per pick	59cpaid	+40.1%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Over	75c	17.72$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.47	215	65.1%140 W · 75 L	+16.4wins	+0.08per pick	57cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5this page
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Over won
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
France vs. Senegal: France 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
France vs. Senegal: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5Over won
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5Over won
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5Over won
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5Over won
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5Over won
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5Over won
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5Under won
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5Under won
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5Over won
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5Under won
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5Under won
Spread: France (-1.5)France won
Spread: France (-2.5)Senegal won
Spread: Senegal (-1.5)France won
Spread: Senegal (-2.5)France won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event