TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: United States (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Bosnia and Herzegovinaof United States, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$295,194
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$434,498

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $295,194 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a69…d2f7backed United States2c25,690$590 inLost-$589.693,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked United States3c7,000$238 inLost-$2381,53649.1%754 W · 782 L+32.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked United States5c4,997$240 inLost-$239.8725019.6%49 W · 201 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked United States3c1,377$37 inLost-$37.192,97328%831 W · 2,142 L-132.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58a3…5336backed United States4c1,220$50 inLost-$502334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed United States3c999.99$31 inLost-$30.847127.8%131 W · 340 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked United States2c676.94$15 inLost-$14.8931232.4%101 W · 211 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aa7…e3d9backed United States2c665.99$14 inLost-$13.99968.3%8 W · 88 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+73.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b9…a8e7backed United States12c606.33$73 inLost-$72.764658.7%27 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9337…a410backed United States4c525.05$21 inLost-$20.7911811.9%14 W · 104 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06df…3b05backed United States4c300$11 inLost-$10.515034.7%52 W · 98 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa573…f034backed United States4c299.99$11 inLost-$10.85916.9%10 W · 49 L-5.1wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-33.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.