United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0844f49c1d5d5f6b495275c43773434e610db71ebedd053deeede6d1cc6528a5

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jul 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $341,141
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $348,687

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $341,141 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x325f…4511backed Over	6c	23,620$1,408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,407.86	1,627	32.1%523 W · 1,104 L	+4.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Over	8c	15,359$1,189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,188.89	494	41.5%205 W · 289 L	+27.7wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	7c	14,904$1,024 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,024.29	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Over	18c	10,000$1,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,799.99	1,536	49.1%754 W · 782 L	+32.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	7c	7,975$589 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$588.96	1,711	35.2%603 W · 1,108 L	-68.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ab8…1b4abacked Over	9c	5,781$531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530.95	396	44.7%177 W · 219 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc41e…e2e9backed Over	0c	5,353$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.19	36	2.8%1 W · 35 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	1cpaid	+177.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over	19c	5,000$950 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$950	1,224	43.4%531 W · 693 L	-7.1wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over	18c	5,000$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	744	47.8%356 W · 388 L	+11.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Over	18c	5,000$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	138	11.6%16 W · 122 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4433…9d34backed Over	19c	4,635$881 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$880.73	788	35.3%278 W · 510 L	+9.6wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4154…e7a8backed Over	18c	3,000$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540	296	33.4%99 W · 197 L	-9.9wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked Over	18c	2,778$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	894	43.4%388 W · 506 L	+18.6wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Over	10c	2,714$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.24	372	23.4%87 W · 285 L	-25.7wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ae1…8c1bbacked Over	5c	2,619$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.1	163	25.8%42 W · 121 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over	18c	2,619$471 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$471.34	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Over	18c	2,222$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	674	47.6%321 W · 353 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over	18c	1,683$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303	360	31.7%114 W · 246 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	10c	1,530$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.96	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fc1…0c67backed Over	10c	1,256$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.8	43	11.6%5 W · 38 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-72.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2053…1eedbacked Over	18c	1,206$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217	93	24.7%23 W · 70 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Over	10c	1,200$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.58	98	21.4%21 W · 77 L	-8.6wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-26%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0886…b3a6backed Over	19c	1,053$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	329	22.5%74 W · 255 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over	19c	1,042$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198	103	30.1%31 W · 72 L	-6.4wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x98be…5794backed Over	19c	1,000$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	115	31.3%36 W · 79 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3270…e011backed Over	2c	962.94$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over	8c	907.65$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.25	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x490f…a02dbacked Over	19c	894.74$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	257	37%95 W · 162 L	+9.5wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over	8c	848.33$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.89	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed Over	18c	771.57$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.88	527	44.4%234 W · 293 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over	6c	699$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.98	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Over	5c	675.33$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.74	186	28.5%53 W · 133 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over	17c	645.41$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.28	1,945	42.7%831 W · 1,114 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf309…e7edbacked Over	19c	526.32$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	30	50%15 W · 15 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+22.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07e2…4b9cbacked Over	5c	516$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.8	189	29.1%55 W · 134 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf875…814dbacked Over	20c	510.16$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	89	44.9%40 W · 49 L	-8.5wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over	19c	500$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	438	26.3%115 W · 323 L	+12.6wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Over	3c	397.87$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.72	312	32.4%101 W · 211 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Over	10c	371.27$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	351	50.7%178 W · 173 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Over	10c	351.46$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.45	2,271	39.5%896 W · 1,375 L	+10.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbaa8…645bbacked Over	16c	320$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.2	83	26.5%22 W · 61 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Over	8c	300.06$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.16	719	39.1%281 W · 438 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-33%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over	17c	300$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.68	735	36.3%267 W · 468 L	-32.3wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd34c…10b4backed Over	17c	294.12$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	724	24.7%179 W · 545 L	-9.4wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	12c	284.53$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.14	1,559	52.4%817 W · 742 L	+97.8wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x113f…ae4dbacked Over	12c	284.53$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.31	174	48.9%85 W · 89 L	+9.5wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b02…f3d9backed Over	19c	266.08$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	224	49.1%110 W · 114 L	+20.3wins	+0.09per pick	40cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4cdd…58c2backed Over	9c	265.41$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1c3…72a8backed Over	19c	263.16$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	125	44%55 W · 70 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Over	15c	250$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	438	19.2%84 W · 354 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad1…35d0backed Over	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-55%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Over	19c	240.46$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.19	248	40.3%100 W · 148 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x786d…b89bbacked Over	19c	210.53$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	522	17.4%91 W · 431 L	-11.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5537…f9c8backed Over	19c	210.53$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	194	42.3%82 W · 112 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Over	14c	200$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	1,354	38.9%527 W · 827 L	-55.8wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ad4…682dbacked Over	18c	194.44$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over	17c	180.85$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.74	977	42%410 W · 567 L	-6.5wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7921…bbc3backed Over	17c	176.47$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	241	40.2%97 W · 144 L	-12.2wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-16%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x10b0…9b5ebacked Over	18c	166.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	55	21.8%12 W · 43 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-12%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed Over	7c	159.17$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.66	847	38.8%329 W · 518 L	-9.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Over	20c	150$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1,380	40.2%555 W · 825 L	-51.6wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-23%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Over	17c	150$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.75	1,563	39.8%622 W · 941 L	-51.9wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Over	19c	150$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.73	872	37.8%330 W · 542 L	-39.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2126…aeebbacked Over	12c	150$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.25	414	44.9%186 W · 228 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x280e…b409backed Over	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	128	18%23 W · 105 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6b…3e58backed Over	18c	116.67$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	109	11%12 W · 97 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bb1…daf7backed Over	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	188	21.8%41 W · 147 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8cf…bdf6backed Over	19c	105.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x074a…f8a3backed Over	19c	105.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	130	19.2%25 W · 105 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Over	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	650	36.9%240 W · 410 L	-27.9wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-28%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Over	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	130	38.5%50 W · 80 L	+9.1wins	+0.07per pick	31cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Over	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1,438	40.1%576 W · 862 L	-40.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x387a…8eaebacked Over	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	329	28%92 W · 237 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over	17c	96.89$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.55	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Over	17c	85$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.45	770	51.3%395 W · 375 L	+29.1wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed Under	79c	80$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.8	315	53%167 W · 148 L	+9.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41c5…fa6abacked Over	19c	78.95$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.19per pick	14cpaid	+99.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x672d…97f1backed Over	19c	69.3$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	106	43.4%46 W · 60 L	+7.8wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+44.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x15d9…6b54backed Over	19c	67$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.73	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc4d3…5639backed Over	19c	61.53$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.69	42	38.1%16 W · 26 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5this page
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)United States won
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5)United States won
Spread: United States (-1.5)United States won
Spread: United States (-2.5)Bosnia and Herzegovina won
Spread: United States (-3.5)Bosnia and Herzegovina won
Spread: United States (-4.5)Bosnia and Herzegovina won
Spread: United States (-5.5)Bosnia and Herzegovina won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Bosnia and Herzegovina 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Bosnia and Herzegovina 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Bosnia and Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Bosnia and Herzegovina O/U 0.5Under won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Bosnia and Herzegovina O/U 1.5Under won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Bosnia and Herzegovina O/U 2.5Under won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5Over won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5Under won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5Under won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5Under won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 6.5Under won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 7.5Under won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5Under won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Team to AdvanceUnited States won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: United States 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: United States 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: United States O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: United States O/U 1.5Over won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: United States O/U 2.5Under won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?No won
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event