TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Germany (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Ecuadorof Germany, Ecuador
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,860
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,676

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,860 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 7 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbcf…63bdbacked Germany5c2,001$100 inLost-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Germany1c1,863$20 inLost-$19.832,97328%831 W · 2,142 L-132.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb69d…7678backed Germany3c1,724$50 inLost-$5012138.8%47 W · 74 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77fc…0eacbacked Germany3c349.97$10 inLost-$10.510518.1%19 W · 86 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x81ed…59f5backed Germany5c306.12$15 inLost-$1560821.9%133 W · 475 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fb…9b84backed Germany6c241$13 inLost-$13.2915235.5%54 W · 98 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9c…913bbacked Germany10c134.02$13 inLost-$137412.2%9 W · 65 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.