Fifa International · resolved market
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40e7c9af7d3326c9bf3c30b5bdb68718296cb60ca7fbdb187b8e5e2780548da9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $156,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $154,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 23c | 8,387$1,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,916.91 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Over | 15c | 7,631$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.93 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 20c | 7,224$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.33 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 14c | 6,662$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.59 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 7c | 4,128$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.32 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 8c | 4,028$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.04 | 657 | 37.4%246 W · 411 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 78c | 3,308$2,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.52 | 1,252 | 39.2%491 W · 761 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 8c | 2,899$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.03 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Over | 5c | 2,119$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.97 | 778 | 45%350 W · 428 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b8…b4aebacked Under | 79c | 1,887$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.25 | 233 | 53.2%124 W · 109 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 23c | 1,374$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.38 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.03 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 4c | 915.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 24c | 546.99$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.71 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 22c | 535.12$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.95 | 483 | 28%135 W · 348 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Over | 16c | 515$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 372 | 37.4%139 W · 233 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 7c | 512.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 20c | 500.59$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.47 | 1,669 | 41.6%694 W · 975 L | +15.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…ac23backed Over | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 957 | 39.5%378 W · 579 L | -18.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 21c | 415.86$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 331 | 20.8%69 W · 262 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe987…f0e1backed Over | 6c | 396.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 380 | 26.6%101 W · 279 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Over | 8c | 391.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 82 | 13.4%11 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 12c | 323.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 8c | 301.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 465 | 25.4%118 W · 347 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79f5…79c7backed Under | 76c | 292.74$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.34 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2952…f50dbacked Over | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 24c | 230.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 2,271 | 39.5%896 W · 1,375 L | +10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 19c | 222.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1411…631dbacked Over | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 11.7%9 W · 68 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 7c | 188.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,945 | 42.7%831 W · 1,114 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…cc76backed Over | 8c | 178.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd22…2000backed Over | 23c | 167.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 7c | 153.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Over | 7c | 153.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1,390 | 46.3%644 W · 746 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,563 | 39.8%622 W · 941 L | -51.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 8c | 146.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 78c | 133.14$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a80…843abacked Over | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…e385backed Under | 79c | 116.46$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…22a8backed Over | 24c | 104.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Over | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 580 | 49.1%285 W · 295 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…e29ebacked Over | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 79 | 27.8%22 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa12c…b9ecbacked Over | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 32c | 50.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddc…be18backed Under | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 79c | 36.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 1,438 | 40.1%576 W · 862 L | -40.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Under | 76c | 34.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 95 | 63.2%60 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Under | 78c | 32.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 294 | 63.3%186 W · 108 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Under | 78c | 16.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 174 | 32.8%57 W · 117 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 2.5this page
- Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 0.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)Germany won
- Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)Germany won
- Spread: Ecuador (-4.5)Germany won
- Spread: Ecuador (-5.5)Germany won
- Spread: Germany (-1.5)Ecuador won
- Spread: Germany (-2.5)Ecuador won
- Spread: Germany (-3.5)Ecuador won
- Spread: Germany (-4.5)Ecuador won
- Spread: Germany (-5.5)Ecuador won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.