TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Germany (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Ecuadorof Germany, Ecuador
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$107,261
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$106,239

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,261 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb85…152fbacked Germany8c50,000$3,900 inLost-$3,899.9818740.6%76 W · 111 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe987…f0e1backed Germany8c5,000$395 inLost-$39538026.6%101 W · 279 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1df…8a9cbacked Germany8c3,747$300 inLost-$3005223.1%12 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Germany2c3,295$69 inLost-$69.23,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd404…b4ebbacked Germany9c1,115$100 inLost-$1006823.5%16 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9865…57acbacked Germany9c1,111$100 inLost-$10010911%12 W · 97 L-9.4wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-66%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Germany8c1,092$90 inLost-$9019317.1%33 W · 160 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0693…9679backed Germany4c1,032$41 inLost-$41.2722633.6%76 W · 150 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x541c…a7ecbacked Germany6c833.33$50 inLost-$506918.8%13 W · 56 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e89…3e0abacked Germany7c668.22$50 inLost-$5026716.1%43 W · 224 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ecd…44e8backed Germany8c659.09$55 inLost-$552528%7 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb69d…7678backed Germany8c649.35$50 inLost-$5012138.8%47 W · 74 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d4e…4accbacked Germany6c599$36 inLost-$35.948121%17 W · 64 L-9.3wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-48.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9637…a576backed Germany9c581.4$50 inLost-$5045120.6%93 W · 358 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Germany8c477.2$38 inLost-$37.941,00544.3%445 W · 560 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9aa…77e2backed Germany8c416.36$32 inLost-$32.06633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5090…9e15backed Germany8c324.68$25 inLost-$256918.8%13 W · 56 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1528…1740backed Germany8c324.68$25 inLost-$25150%0 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x81ed…59f5backed Germany8c312.5$25 inLost-$2560821.9%133 W · 475 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99b5…0b19backed Germany6c299.98$18 inLost-$17.72321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-50.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Germany8c270.06$21 inLost-$21.231,47544.9%663 W · 812 L-4.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9bd…2030backed Germany8c253.16$20 inLost-$204429.5%13 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4317…c7e2backed Germany9c202.44$17 inLost-$17.4150%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x46b0…48dabacked Germany5c200$10 inLost-$103432.4%11 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x119d…bec3backed Germany8c182.93$15 inLost-$1520432.8%67 W · 137 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40a0…829fbacked Germany8c181.82$14 inLost-$144443.2%19 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Germany8c175.49$14 inLost-$14.483,07747%1,447 W · 1,630 L-11.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Germany8c161.48$13 inLost-$13.373,21347.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9c…913bbacked Germany9c159.09$14 inLost-$147412.2%9 W · 65 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed Germany9c159.03$14 inLost-$13.991,13540.2%456 W · 679 L+5.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4619…9647backed Germany8c137.5$11 inLost-$11450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-27%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.