TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 0.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,588
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,750

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,588 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under32c531.49$172 inLost-$171.82,62641.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L-11.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over61c502.53$305 inWon+$197.984,02738.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L-26.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Under35c168$59 inLost-$59.351,35438.9%527 W · 827 L-55.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over68c131.29$90 inWon+$41.691,66941.6%694 W · 975 L+15.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under37c83$30 inLost-$30.4673536.3%267 W · 468 L-32.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6216…1bd4backed Under15c70$11 inLost-$10.523741.8%99 W · 138 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Under17c65$11 inLost-$11.0570648.2%340 W · 366 L+0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3f…a42abacked Under18c65$12 inLost-$11.76618.2%12 W · 54 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under18c63.09$11 inLost-$11.363,07747%1,447 W · 1,630 L-11.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under39c50$20 inLost-$19.52,80446.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L-27.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa23f…7f29backed Over72c21$15 inWon+$5.8815745.9%72 W · 85 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.