TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,807
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,195

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,807 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x096a…390bbacked Under51c2,778$1,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,365.441338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Under45c1,822$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.6653448.5%259 W · 275 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Over53c1,408$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.112,62641.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L-11.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e1…99dbbacked Over38c1,236$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.1158049.1%285 W · 295 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd62…6c34backed Under63c1,135$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.23378.8%26 W · 7 L+4.7wins+0.14per pick65cpaid+34.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x839e…0d3cbacked Over52c952.93$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50013639%53 W · 83 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over50c880.52$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.052,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Over51c842.29$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.443,21347.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41bb…6302backed Under49c745.5$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.213243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over32c477.75$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.514,02738.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L-26.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over51c358.41$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.621,66941.6%694 W · 975 L+15.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7e5…cebbbacked Under50c319.8$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.811458.8%67 W · 47 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+67.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over46c318.18$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.32,79346.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L-10.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over54c282.04$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.388,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f1d…d2afbacked Over8c246.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Under54c241.85$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.41,56339.8%622 W · 941 L-51.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked Over48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961,20650.2%606 W · 600 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f30…e4e7backed Under65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over40c176$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.42,53346.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L+12.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Under44c143.18$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.1837458.8%220 W · 154 L+18.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over10c137.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.432,32718.1%422 W · 1,905 L-363.0wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over48c130.42$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.482,80446.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L-27.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Under47c115.73$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.3477845%350 W · 428 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe231…93a5backed Over52c100.58$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525334%18 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b7f…d56cbacked Under41c100.25$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.2582537.1%306 W · 519 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0340…f97dbacked Over53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504339.5%17 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Under51c88$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.362,17138.2%829 W · 1,342 L-36.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over51c79$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.323,28649.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L+6.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d6e…8b2dbacked Over50c76$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387149.3%35 W · 36 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf96b…9c4cbacked Over45c71.9$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3620553.7%110 W · 95 L+21.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Over45c58.83$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.476160.7%37 W · 24 L+9.5wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+33.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Over45c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51,79544.2%794 W · 1,001 L-12.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Over51c43.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.312,23149.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L-21.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Over50c42.4$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.231,29353.6%693 W · 600 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x515b…2d91backed Under62c41.94$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.946258.1%36 W · 26 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cef…2c8dbacked Under47c39.61$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9943460.4%262 W · 172 L+33.5wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under48c35$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.22,79656.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L-9.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under50c33.77$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.043,07747%1,447 W · 1,630 L-11.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ee3…01abbacked Over55c33.6$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.488140.7%33 W · 48 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under47c32.63$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.292,41153%1,278 W · 1,133 L+75.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15a7…5ed1backed Under51c31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1912045%54 W · 66 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda9…f624backed Over51c29.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.361,15158.5%673 W · 478 L+0.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under58c27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.373536.3%267 W · 468 L-32.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Over46c24.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4420860.6%126 W · 82 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc8…a0e4backed Over51c22.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3886656.4%488 W · 378 L-13.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c15…9a45backed Under55c20.17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0936350.1%182 W · 181 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.