Fifa International · resolved market
Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dcd30d7adccb274f9760571056de457ce2c350ffbbb7a85bdc8b307e54c8113
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x096a…390bbacked Under | 51c | 2,778$1,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.44 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Under | 45c | 1,822$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.66 | 534 | 48.5%259 W · 275 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 53c | 1,408$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.11 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Over | 38c | 1,236$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.11 | 580 | 49.1%285 W · 295 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd62…6c34backed Under | 63c | 1,135$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.2 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…0d3cbacked Over | 52c | 952.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 50c | 880.52$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.05 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 51c | 842.29$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.44 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41bb…6302backed Under | 49c | 745.5$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.21 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 32c | 477.75$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.51 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 51c | 358.41$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.62 | 1,669 | 41.6%694 W · 975 L | +15.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…cebbbacked Under | 50c | 319.8$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.8 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 46c | 318.18$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.3 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 54c | 282.04$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.38 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1d…d2afbacked Over | 8c | 246.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 54c | 241.85$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.4 | 1,563 | 39.8%622 W · 941 L | -51.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1,206 | 50.2%606 W · 600 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f30…e4e7backed Under | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 40c | 176$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 44c | 143.18$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 374 | 58.8%220 W · 154 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 10c | 137.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 48c | 130.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Under | 47c | 115.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 778 | 45%350 W · 428 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe231…93a5backed Over | 52c | 100.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked Under | 41c | 100.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 825 | 37.1%306 W · 519 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0340…f97dbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 51c | 88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 51c | 79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6e…8b2dbacked Over | 50c | 76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf96b…9c4cbacked Over | 45c | 71.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +21.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Over | 45c | 58.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +9.5wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 51c | 43.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 50c | 42.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 1,293 | 53.6%693 W · 600 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515b…2d91backed Under | 62c | 41.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…2c8dbacked Under | 47c | 39.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 434 | 60.4%262 W · 172 L | +33.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 50c | 33.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…01abbacked Over | 55c | 33.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 47c | 32.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Under | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed Over | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1,151 | 58.5%673 W · 478 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 735 | 36.3%267 W · 468 L | -32.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Over | 46c | 24.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Over | 51c | 22.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 866 | 56.4%488 W · 378 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…9a45backed Under | 55c | 20.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 1.5this page
- Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 2.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 0.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)Germany won
- Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)Germany won
- Spread: Ecuador (-4.5)Germany won
- Spread: Ecuador (-5.5)Germany won
- Spread: Germany (-1.5)Ecuador won
- Spread: Germany (-2.5)Ecuador won
- Spread: Germany (-3.5)Ecuador won
- Spread: Germany (-4.5)Ecuador won
- Spread: Germany (-5.5)Ecuador won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.