Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85959f9f1d190d2ca5545ed29ce442ea6a32895ac74f5bd4a72357a77b6bf4d4

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Germanyof Ecuador, Germany
Resolved: Jun 25, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $413,502
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $465,451

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $413,502 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Ecuador	6c	77,984$4,897 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,896.79	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Ecuador	6c	50,981$3,072 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,072.4	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Ecuador	9c	11,232$972 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$971.52	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ea…2f71backed Ecuador	5c	5,938$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.75	107	53.3%57 W · 50 L	+7.4wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Ecuador	8c	5,206$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439.79	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Ecuador	5c	5,044$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.07	141	32.6%46 W · 95 L	-8.9wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0823…ec6abacked Ecuador	10c	3,822$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.17	431	39%168 W · 263 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ecuador	8c	3,358$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.74	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Ecuador	7c	3,150$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.5	605	11.4%69 W · 536 L	-16.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-38%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Ecuador	7c	3,084$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.71	744	47.8%356 W · 388 L	+11.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Ecuador	6c	2,877$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.3	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dbb…352fbacked Ecuador	7c	2,857$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	164	41.5%68 W · 96 L	-8.6wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Ecuador	6c	2,419$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.17	1,941	35.5%690 W · 1,251 L	-25.4wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Ecuador	2c	2,209$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.81	740	34.1%252 W · 488 L	-36.1wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Ecuador	7c	2,209$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.57	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Ecuador	7c	1,822$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.54	494	41.5%205 W · 289 L	+27.7wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0852…655cbacked Ecuador	14c	1,699$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.7	536	29.9%160 W · 376 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f3d…95b1backed Ecuador	7c	1,571$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	96	22.9%22 W · 74 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Ecuador	6c	1,415$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.47	1,560	43.8%684 W · 876 L	-4.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae76…2763backed Ecuador	7c	1,365$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.54	186	26.3%49 W · 137 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Ecuador	18c	1,345$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.21	1,252	39.2%491 W · 761 L	+6.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x942a…aedcbacked Ecuador	7c	1,260$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.2	31	74.2%23 W · 8 L	+2.7wins	+0.09per pick	66cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60f6…a196backed Ecuador	7c	1,241$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.65	460	12.4%57 W · 403 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Ecuador	8c	1,076$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.26	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Ecuador	7c	957$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.99	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Ecuador	6c	932.23$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.99	872	37.8%330 W · 542 L	-39.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Ecuador	4c	901.93$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.08	360	31.7%114 W · 246 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Ecuador	5c	805.25$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.41	1,390	46.3%644 W · 746 L	+20.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Ecuador	11c	799$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.89	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Ecuador	7c	781.71$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.62	1,141	46.2%527 W · 614 L	+25.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78c1…473ebacked Ecuador	6c	665.79$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.95	513	15.6%80 W · 433 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Ecuador	5c	599.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.3	753	35.6%268 W · 485 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbec0…9bddbacked Ecuador	8c	538.27$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.55	626	33.9%212 W · 414 L	-28.6wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Ecuador	5c	517.08$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.25	1,313	48.9%642 W · 671 L	+12.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Ecuador	7c	500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.8	372	37.4%139 W · 233 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c3…ac23backed Ecuador	5c	499.77$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	957	39.5%378 W · 579 L	-18.4wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa209…ffbebacked Ecuador	7c	485.81$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	594	53.4%317 W · 277 L	+43.8wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa7c0…dadabacked Ecuador	5c	479.98$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.44	112	30.4%34 W · 78 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Ecuador	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	681	41.1%280 W · 401 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Ecuador	12c	390.75$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.27	1,711	35.2%603 W · 1,108 L	-68.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Ecuador	12c	348.48$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.46	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Ecuador	6c	330.37$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.42	432	30.1%130 W · 302 L	-17.6wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-41%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed Ecuador	7c	299.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.59	1,421	47.8%679 W · 742 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Ecuador	5c	265.27$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.26	1,873	48.4%906 W · 967 L	+14.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Ecuador	16c	260.99$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.76	514	29.4%151 W · 363 L	-46.1wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0xdb02…0f88backed Ecuador	6c	230$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	9cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Ecuador	6c	229.98$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.28	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Ecuador	6c	208.17$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.49	472	35%165 W · 307 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b2…8e7dbacked Ecuador	8c	208.13$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.65	127	40.9%52 W · 75 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Ecuador	6c	200.69$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.43	1,005	44.3%445 W · 560 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Ecuador	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	120	38.3%46 W · 74 L	+7.4wins	+0.06per pick	32cpaid	+31.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16d4…6e9bbacked Ecuador	6c	186.62$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	211	28%59 W · 152 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcda7…d089backed Ecuador	17c	178.53$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dfb…f1b7backed Ecuador	6c	173.16$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.25	782	34.3%268 W · 514 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Ecuador	8c	161.41$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	719	39.1%281 W · 438 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-33%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Ecuador	15c	128.4$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.08	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0459…0fcbbacked Ecuador	10c	103.76$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	267	20.6%55 W · 212 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf074…13e5backed Ecuador	16c	101.18$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	39	41%16 W · 23 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1597…6edebacked Ecuador	20c	75.76$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	470	29.1%137 W · 333 L	-14.2wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)this page
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5Over won
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5Over won
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 2.5Under won
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5Over won
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5Under won
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5Under won
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 0.5Over won
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5Over won
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5Over won
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5Under won
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5Under won
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5Under won
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5Under won
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5Under won
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5Under won
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)Germany won
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5)Germany won
Spread: Ecuador (-5.5)Germany won
Spread: Germany (-1.5)Ecuador won
Spread: Germany (-2.5)Ecuador won
Spread: Germany (-3.5)Ecuador won
Spread: Germany (-4.5)Ecuador won
Spread: Germany (-5.5)Ecuador won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event