TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 0.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$123,940
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$149,491

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,940 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf031…c80cbacked Under5c19,715$986 inLost-$985.7333538.2%128 W · 207 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56f4…9ec5backed Under3c14,964$432 inLost-$431.7341331%128 W · 285 L+0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…9507backed Under0c10,600$34 inLost-$34.510940.4%44 W · 65 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5faf…1183backed Under5c10,000$500 inLost-$5009823.5%23 W · 75 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-33.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa700…102bbacked Under1c7,615$76 inLost-$76.1551514.2%73 W · 442 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Under5c3,150$158 inLost-$157.560511.4%69 W · 536 L-16.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c9e…5b1bbacked Under5c2,500$125 inLost-$12560%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ff9…ca43backed Under5c2,000$100 inLost-$1002123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+40.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d3a…d724backed Under5c2,000$100 inLost-$10021227.8%59 W · 153 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+37.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under1c1,583$20 inLost-$2021722.1%48 W · 169 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Under1c1,428$16 inLost-$15.652,63432.9%867 W · 1,767 L+43.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7f…bce6backed Under6c1,167$70 inLost-$707945.6%36 W · 43 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…14e8backed Under5c900$45 inLost-$452814.3%4 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8963…de64backed Under3c854$27 inLost-$27.098838.6%34 W · 54 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under5c791.37$40 inLost-$39.571,22443.4%531 W · 693 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under4c788.34$32 inLost-$31.532,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ea1…c38ebacked Under7c714.29$50 inLost-$509435.1%33 W · 61 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ff6…2712backed Under5c680$34 inLost-$344346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under4c664.5$27 inLost-$26.584,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77fc…0eacbacked Under4c591.47$24 inLost-$23.6610518.1%19 W · 86 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ae1…378fbacked Under4c499.99$20 inLost-$2018929.1%55 W · 134 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Under6c424$25 inLost-$25.441,04529.3%306 W · 739 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0056…d0ecbacked Under5c399.81$20 inLost-$2016927.8%47 W · 122 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-35.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe270…eab5backed Under5c370$19 inLost-$18.524136.9%89 W · 152 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe84e…b520backed Under6c333.33$20 inLost-$2011337.2%42 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Under6c200$12 inLost-$1212013.3%16 W · 104 L-6.8wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4c0…eca1backed Under5c200$10 inLost-$1011245.5%51 W · 61 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.