TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1ff1…9d99

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
33
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Tweets, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 57 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 19, 2025, EST875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+68.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Tweets — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+181.7%+$32.25
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$23.5
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$28.5
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+208.8%+$33.81
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+125.2%+$27.79
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+87.6%+$23.35
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+74.5%+$21.35
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+72.4%+$21
All 8 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Lol — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+31.6%+$7.89
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$26.02
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5)backed Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$11.76
All 3 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hurricanes vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$19.5
Rangers vs. Bruinsbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+61.3%+$19
Wild vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$27
All 3 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Eagles vs. Chargersbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+122.2%+$27.5
Texans vs. Titansbacked Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+108.3%+$26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+92.3%+$9.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump say "hostage" 4+ times during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+78.6%+$22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+31.6%+$4.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-12-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$21
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5)backed FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$20.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$23
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$25.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$27.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.