TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x4ee6…12c6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
42
Categories scored
4
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: Tweets, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 60 out of 100; worst Middle East at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Lol Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT1866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2backed JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$35.2
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 4 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 3 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$28
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$23
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+29.2%+$22.6
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Invictus Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$117
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$52
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$86
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winnerbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.68
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvanabacked LNG Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.36
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked LNG Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.07
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winnerbacked Kiwoom DRX Challengers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+38.2%+$13.83
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked Team Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$168
LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked GIANTX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$38.09
LoL: Fnatic vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked Fnatic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+136.9%+$100.58
LoL: Fnatic vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$224.83
LoL: LOS vs Leviatan Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Leviatan Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$67
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffsbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+82.9%+$96.11
All 18 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT1376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.26per pick51cpaid+85.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Tweets — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$62
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.2
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$66
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+150%+$144.6
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$57.87
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$102
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$258
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+35.7%+$41.34
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$39
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+232.2%+$461.23
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+121.2%+$52.66
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+51.5%+$57.8
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$330
All 13 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT1070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+32.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pistons vs. Hornetsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$168
Spread: Spurs (-2.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.09
Spurs vs. Nuggetsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$77
Rockets vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+262.3%+$362
Kings vs. Warriorsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$67.99
Knicks vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$347Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+26.8%+$93
Hawks vs. Nuggetsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+42.9%+$12
Clippers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+61.3%+$76
Trail Blazers vs. Warriorsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$252Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+58.6%+$147.75
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$399Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+50.4%+$201
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$220
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.