TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc921…ab0b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
33
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Champions League, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 53 out of 100; worst Premier League at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Oct 23, 2025, EDT2268.2%15 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick68cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.81
Pelicans vs. Grizzliesbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.27
Pistons vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$12.05
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+58.3%+$16.61
Rockets vs. Thunderbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$53.97
Hawks vs. Heatbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.72
Celtics vs. Sunsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$5.32
Thunder vs. Kingsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2025, EDT+27.4%+$10.97
Hawks vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2025, EDT+44.3%+$25.04
Warriors vs. Heatbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Magic vs. Hornetsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT+73.2%+$137.39
Bucks vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT+35.7%+$69.63
Celtics vs. Kingsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$8.24
Bulls vs. Nuggetsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$9.41
Raptors vs. Wizardsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$80.39
Warriors vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT+33.4%+$66.73
Bucks vs. Lakersbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$14.1
Nets vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$8.67
Knicks vs. Hornetsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$23
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.02
Pistons vs. Heatbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$5.63
Cavaliers vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$3.46
All 22 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-10-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+62.9%+$15.21
Will AS Monaco FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+74.2%+$12.86
All 2 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Sep 25, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+58.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lyon win on 2025-09-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT+217.2%+$21.72
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.64
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Sep 27, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea vs. Brighton end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.43
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona beat Atlético Madrid?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$16.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$462Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$462.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Sep 27, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
White Sox vs. Nationalsbacked White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pan Pacific Open: Diana Shnaider vs Anna Kalinskayabacked Shnaider · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.