TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd5e5…6f34

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
33
Categories scored
4
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: NFL, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 53 out of 100; worst Movies at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 20, 2026, EDT2853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Kyoji Horiguchi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.43
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Diego Lopes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$8
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Belal Muhammad · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Bryce Mitchell · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$19.59
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perrybacked Diaz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Arnold Allen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$17.04
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Dooho Choi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+150%+$37.5
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Malcolm Wellmaker · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.69
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Sean Brady · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+126.2%+$31.56
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Renato Moicano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$25.34
UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight, Prelims)backed Yousri Belgaroui · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$63.64
UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Marcin Tybura · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$98
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+237.4%+$71.22
UFC Fight Night: Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Costa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+53.8%+$10.77
UFC Fight Night: Chidi Njokuani vs. Carlos Leal (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Njokuani · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$45
UFC Fight Night: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Bautista · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+75.4%+$37.72
UFC Fight Night: Rizvan Kuniev vs. Jailton Almeida (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Kuniev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+156.4%+$23.46
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Volkanovski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+69.6%+$13.92
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Fiziev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
UFC 325: Brundage vs. Rowston (Middleweight, Prelims)backed Rowston · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+30.1%+$9.04
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+212.5%+$42.5
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Lewis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$10
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Silva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+51.5%+$10.3
Salikhov vs. Medicbacked Salikhov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+47.9%+$9.59
Chiefs vs. Billsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+56.3%+$5.63
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown by October 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.