TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe467…593a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
34
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Middle East, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 55 out of 100; worst Euroleague at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT2470.8%17 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
France vs. Spain: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+25.8%+$51.57
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+47.8%+$95.51
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$66.67
Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$639.34
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$72.41
Mexico vs. England: England O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,355Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+37.5%+$508.59
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advancebacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$42.86
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advancebacked Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$6,227Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$3,657.01
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Netherlands · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$3,805Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,805.42
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+37%+$36.99
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,041Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+25.8%+$268.91
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advancebacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$35.14
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$5,143Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+34.4%+$1,771.21
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$3,922Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$2,614.9
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,319Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,319
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+100%+$100
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$672Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$486.97
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Italy end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+300%+$103.82
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.6
Will Italy win on 2026-03-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$28.21
All 24 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+182.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+122.2%+$488.89
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+242.2%+$605.48
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+100.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Górnik Zabrze vs. Fenerbahçe SK end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+300.4%+$237.32
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-07-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+39.5%+$39.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Fenerbahcebacked Fenerbahce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.