TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Switzerland (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Qatarof Switzerland, Qatar
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,004,033
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,005,389

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,004,033 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 623 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x224a…a3d5backed Qatar67c354,087$238,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116,029.8877152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Switzerland30c104,684$31,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,590.974,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Switzerland36c69,579$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,00019644.9%88 W · 108 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Switzerland31c60,219$18,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,789.851,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Qatar66c50,510$33,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,123.183638.9%14 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked Qatar62c28,593$17,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,862.5914843.2%64 W · 84 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Switzerland34c18,831$6,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,432.192,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ff…32ebbacked Qatar56c17,454$9,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,705.3810550.5%53 W · 52 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Switzerland35c15,227$5,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,304.831,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Qatar76c11,509$8,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,768.162,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba1d…d326backed Switzerland50c10,931$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,499.821946.1%101 W · 118 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Switzerland35c10,058$3,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,489.032,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc04e…75d9backed Qatar66c10,000$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4001163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…ef38backed Switzerland39c10,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,899.999323.7%22 W · 71 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Switzerland31c9,600$2,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,97636250.8%184 W · 178 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Switzerland31c9,500$2,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9452931%9 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-39.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x088b…21ccbacked Switzerland35c8,165$2,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,871.855040%20 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbcfb…efc0backed Switzerland35c8,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8007129.6%21 W · 50 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Switzerland36c7,777$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,799.7232029.4%94 W · 226 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10a6…4d8bbacked Switzerland51c7,206$3,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,674.9864446.4%299 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd684…f320backed Switzerland50c7,184$3,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,559.296045%27 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+13.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Switzerland39c6,931$2,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,678.343,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Switzerland31c6,822$2,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,123.9848152.4%252 W · 229 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Switzerland31c6,768$2,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,098.0821333.3%71 W · 142 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bbc…a861backed Switzerland32c6,250$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002623.1%6 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb15…8393backed Switzerland33c5,796$1,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,901.4614829.7%44 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Qatar67c5,578$3,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,848.222,80555.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L+70.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Qatar64c5,334$3,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9233,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Qatar65c5,260$3,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,855.841,87348.4%906 W · 967 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Switzerland32c5,000$1,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,596.1550243.4%218 W · 284 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Qatar64c5,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.9716258.6%95 W · 67 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Switzerland31c4,800$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48837850.5%191 W · 187 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Switzerland60c4,669$2,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,822.5110836.1%39 W · 69 L+8.7wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+32.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Switzerland31c4,218$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,322.483,73151.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L+55.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Switzerland31c4,200$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30238351.4%197 W · 186 L-1.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Switzerland32c4,089$1,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,306.0447144.8%211 W · 260 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaa2…e80abacked Switzerland36c4,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44013959.7%83 W · 56 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc7…43e5backed Switzerland42c3,858$1,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,627.213830.4%42 W · 96 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Switzerland31c3,600$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,11635251.7%182 W · 170 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Switzerland35c3,310$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.5556541.1%232 W · 333 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76aa…eff9backed Qatar37c3,219$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,019.4725753.3%137 W · 120 L+23.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+17.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe10f…e4aebacked Qatar66c3,030$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.214454.2%78 W · 66 L+9.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Switzerland31c3,000$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93023255.2%128 W · 104 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf88f…c334backed Switzerland32c3,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b57…1f2ebacked Qatar63c3,000$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1102552%13 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Switzerland32c2,972$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.8347643.3%206 W · 270 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed Qatar61c2,962$1,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.3325844.6%115 W · 143 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed Switzerland32c2,835$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.116445.3%29 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37ae…1002backed Switzerland36c2,778$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00024917.7%44 W · 205 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Switzerland36c2,503$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.722,97328%831 W · 2,142 L-132.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Switzerland33c2,500$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.548441.9%203 W · 281 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Switzerland23c2,469$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57746223.2%107 W · 355 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Switzerland31c2,400$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74439050.8%198 W · 192 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Switzerland31c2,400$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74438451.6%198 W · 186 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed Qatar66c2,273$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.7320547.3%97 W · 108 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Qatar68c2,064$1,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.2429449%144 W · 150 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Qatar51c2,030$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.6129232.9%96 W · 196 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9efc…cce5backed Qatar69c2,029$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.9910458.7%61 W · 43 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed Switzerland36c2,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7208337.3%31 W · 52 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Switzerland37c2,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74023729.1%69 W · 168 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Switzerland35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70035446%163 W · 191 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Qatar69c2,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6208247.6%39 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f48…a145backed Switzerland35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7002240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc8…2f68backed Qatar62c1,974$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.128938.2%34 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…e900backed Qatar71c1,927$1,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.4936437.1%135 W · 229 L+16.5wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Qatar65c1,915$1,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.3161750.6%312 W · 305 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Switzerland31c1,800$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55835352.7%186 W · 167 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Switzerland31c1,800$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55835251.7%182 W · 170 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Switzerland35c1,757$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.7265835%230 W · 428 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Switzerland31c1,751$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.0863151.5%325 W · 306 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Qatar65c1,675$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.1577845%350 W · 428 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Switzerland35c1,585$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.988,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Qatar67c1,582$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.681,06749.1%524 W · 543 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Switzerland31c1,560$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.639951.4%205 W · 194 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7657…66ccbacked Qatar78c1,530$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.761450%7 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2965…0dedbacked Qatar65c1,527$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.8113844.2%61 W · 77 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc66f…104cbacked Qatar66c1,515$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.156141%25 W · 36 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e7c…4ca0backed Switzerland36c1,508$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.81425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-46.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc4…ab52backed Switzerland37c1,504$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.66425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+50.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Qatar64c1,500$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54086452.7%455 W · 409 L+26.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Switzerland33c1,484$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.4542952%223 W · 206 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Switzerland31c1,440$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.440848.8%199 W · 209 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x439c…8a28backed Switzerland35c1,429$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked Switzerland36c1,389$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50089443.4%388 W · 506 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Switzerland36c1,389$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010042%42 W · 58 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Qatar64c1,384$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.0774447.8%356 W · 388 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Switzerland48c1,321$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.951,79544.2%794 W · 1,001 L-12.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Switzerland34c1,300$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.6447442.8%203 W · 271 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23d0…0d9bbacked Switzerland36c1,286$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.01837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Qatar69c1,284$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.592,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc56…40adbacked Switzerland37c1,209$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4503923.1%9 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-41.2%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x96a3…d944backed Qatar64c1,200$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43226445.1%119 W · 145 L+17.5wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Switzerland31c1,200$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37237051.4%190 W · 180 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Switzerland34c1,200$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.9714440.3%58 W · 86 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87b6…4ababacked Switzerland35c1,143$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.0345038.2%172 W · 278 L-28.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Qatar62c1,129$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.0312554.4%68 W · 57 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-6.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Switzerland36c1,111$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007530.7%23 W · 52 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0748…e60bbacked Switzerland36c1,111$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-60.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5145…dd71backed Qatar65c1,100$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.9914051.4%72 W · 68 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4e9…1e89backed Qatar65c1,061$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.346434.4%22 W · 42 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-30.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.