Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d044d2809f5b1be24342a573e130099e83f19ac1539de7a562ffec52360b154

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 23, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $160,382
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $179,905

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,382 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Under	12c	38,294$4,529 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,528.71	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	79c	22,023$17,344 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,678.5	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Under	21c	12,500$2,625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,625	219	37%81 W · 138 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70ef…e6ddbacked Under	21c	12,500$2,625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,624.96	108	40.7%44 W · 64 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Over	79c	5,474$4,324 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,149.48	2,271	39.5%896 W · 1,375 L	+10.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x384f…58adbacked Under	21c	3,775$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	53	50.9%27 W · 26 L	-3.6wins	-0.07per pick	58cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82b3…0c0ebacked Under	6c	3,008$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.5	135	31.9%43 W · 92 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c9e…5b1bbacked Under	7c	2,800$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06f2…1269backed Over	78c	2,784$2,177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$607.04	383	33.9%130 W · 253 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d44…1d7cbacked Over	79c	2,181$1,723 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$458.03	59	55.9%33 W · 26 L	+4.1wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over	79c	2,014$1,586 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$428.46	2,819	44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L	-36.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Under	22c	1,980$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.6	589	26.8%158 W · 431 L	-30.5wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0056…d0ecbacked Under	6c	1,667$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	169	27.8%47 W · 122 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Under	5c	1,515$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.73	341	25.8%88 W · 253 L	-10.4wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Under	17c	1,386$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.5	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f8…003dbacked Under	1c	1,300$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	94	8.5%8 W · 86 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over	79c	1,277$1,009 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$268.17	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9689…df62backed Over	79c	1,266$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265.82	234	27.8%65 W · 169 L	+5.4wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+42.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e9b…a0ecbacked Over	80c	1,250$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	37	54.1%20 W · 17 L	-3.7wins	-0.10per pick	64cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe301…8654backed Under	9c	1,223$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.99	441	30.8%136 W · 305 L	-11.6wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9e7…4697backed Under	17c	1,176$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	234	40.2%94 W · 140 L	-5.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29bf…e7e0backed Under	9c	1,111$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc464…5139backed Under	23c	1,071$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.23	335	44.5%149 W · 186 L	+4.5wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe538…c28bbacked Under	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	122	24.6%30 W · 92 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4a7…b2efbacked Under	21c	1,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	70	44.3%31 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a92…dc69backed Under	18c	999.88$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.98	80	32.5%26 W · 54 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e78…067ebacked Under	16c	921.27$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.4	362	35.9%130 W · 232 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbec0…9bddbacked Under	22c	831.44$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.96	626	33.9%212 W · 414 L	-28.6wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under	7c	715.8$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.69	1,627	32.1%523 W · 1,104 L	+4.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b89…a4cdbacked Under	21c	714.29$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	56	35.7%20 W · 36 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x002f…92f3backed Over	80c	632.89$505 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.9	21	76.2%16 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	74cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f4b…0b44backed Under	22c	624.99$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.51	174	32.2%56 W · 118 L	-8.4wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under	5c	620$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.01	1,945	42.7%831 W · 1,114 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Under	6c	521.67$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.3	42	33.3%14 W · 28 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-21%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec12…fd9dbacked Under	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	155	19.4%30 W · 125 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf545…305bbacked Under	15c	500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	142	42.3%60 W · 82 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54b4…14c0backed Under	22c	482.45$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.14	101	33.7%34 W · 67 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6100…1c0bbacked Under	22c	454.55$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Under	13c	350$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.5	148	56.1%83 W · 65 L	+5.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd3f…b7c9backed Under	6c	316.67$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	53	28.3%15 W · 38 L	-4.3wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x32ea…105dbacked Under	7c	314.29$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	177	35%62 W · 115 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3621…3c9fbacked Under	22c	312.49$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.75	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5802…0aedbacked Over	78c	300.63$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.13	239	44.8%107 W · 132 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86a6…1b3ebacked Under	24c	270.83$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	452	48.9%221 W · 231 L	+7.7wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c20…41b3backed Under	7c	269.69$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.21	181	18.2%33 W · 148 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under	7c	265.87$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Over	79c	264$209 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.44	589	42.6%251 W · 338 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e0…a6e7backed Under	6c	226.67$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x901d…507abacked Over	79c	211.52$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.42	55	65.5%36 W · 19 L	+4.2wins	+0.08per pick	58cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b28…b87dbacked Under	9c	191.26$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.39	37	24.3%9 W · 28 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eaa…7a29backed Under	6c	180$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Under	6c	168$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	1,985	32.5%645 W · 1,340 L	-47.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…528ebacked Under	21c	166.67$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	83	36.1%30 W · 53 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Under	7c	157.45$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.79	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x95d4…8a80backed Under	20c	146.48$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	138	46.4%64 W · 74 L	+8.7wins	+0.06per pick	40cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1db…c0afbacked Over	79c	137.04$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.78	39	61.5%24 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	63cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Under	9c	136.27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.26	565	41.1%232 W · 333 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Under	10c	126.4$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.64	432	30.1%130 W · 302 L	-17.6wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-41%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x989d…5733backed Under	23c	126.09$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	62	54.8%34 W · 28 L	+6.6wins	+0.11per pick	44cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x18b6…babfbacked Under	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	212	40.6%86 W · 126 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0693…9679backed Under	21c	119.04$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	226	33.6%76 W · 150 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x415c…9c6dbacked Under	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	54	50%27 W · 27 L	+4.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under	10c	105.03$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.26	695	34.8%242 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Under	14c	101.64$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.23	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Under	24c	100$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	120	13.3%16 W · 104 L	-6.8wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd66…48e4backed Over	78c	100$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	101	48.5%49 W · 52 L	+8.1wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x473c…22fdbacked Over	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	277	65.3%181 W · 96 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Over	77c	99.99$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	399	32.6%130 W · 269 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb3a…d1ccbacked Under	16c	98.36$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.74	229	33.6%77 W · 152 L	+6.6wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d7a…751abacked Under	22c	97.03$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.35	732	34.6%253 W · 479 L	-22.2wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7554…fc63backed Under	17c	88.24$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	221	47.5%105 W · 116 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+80.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x305e…b28bbacked Under	17c	88.24$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	261	33.3%87 W · 174 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5c8…5e53backed Under	22c	85.71$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.86	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4108…a80dbacked Under	19c	80$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	323	17.6%57 W · 266 L	-43.8wins	-0.14per pick	31cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x40d8…9fdabacked Under	17c	70.65$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.02	257	41.6%107 W · 150 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-24%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ed5…44bfbacked Over	77c	70$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.1	179	41.3%74 W · 105 L	-12.6wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc0b…4db0backed Over	77c	61.04$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	67cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Over	80c	58.96$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.01	1,459	53.9%787 W · 672 L	-6.3wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc747…a5c7backed Over	79c	53.16$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.16	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.8wins	-0.44per pick	69cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x661e…c63ebacked Under	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc3c…759bbacked Over	79c	39.26$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.26	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a9…cbb8backed Over	79c	25.32$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.32	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd51…ce69backed Over	79c	24$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.12	233	55.4%129 W · 104 L	+7.4wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62a8…4a14backed Over	80c	12.5$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.5	32	59.4%19 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5this page
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Panama vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Panama vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Panama vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5Over won
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5Under won
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5Under won
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5Under won
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5Under won
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5Under won
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5Under won
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5Under won
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5Under won
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5Under won
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5Under won
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5Under won
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 1.5Under won
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 2.5Under won
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)Panama won
Spread: Croatia (-2.5)Panama won
Spread: Croatia (-3.5)Panama won
Spread: Croatia (-4.5)Panama won
Spread: Panama (-1.5)Croatia won
Spread: Panama (-2.5)Croatia won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event