TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Portugal (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Croatiaof Portugal, Croatia
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$156,918
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$156,549

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,918 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Portugal4c42,825$1,716 inLost-$1,715.772,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Portugal3c16,678$521 inLost-$520.981,62732.1%523 W · 1,104 L+4.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Portugal6c15,000$862 inLost-$862.51,53649.1%754 W · 782 L+32.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Portugal5c12,663$591 inLost-$591.23,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Portugal4c10,048$434 inLost-$433.664,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Portugal6c6,957$417 inLost-$417.3967447.6%321 W · 353 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Portugal5c4,000$200 inLost-$20025019.6%49 W · 201 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Portugal4c3,399$132 inLost-$131.722,97328%831 W · 2,142 L-132.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x65fe…c200backed Portugal6c1,739$100 inLost-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa678…bc50backed Portugal5c990$50 inLost-$49.56749.3%33 W · 34 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+52.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Portugal5c904.21$43 inLost-$42.952030%6 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Portugal5c758.57$37 inLost-$36.661,94135.5%690 W · 1,251 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81ed…59f5backed Portugal6c716.67$43 inLost-$4360821.9%133 W · 475 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Portugal5c500$24 inLost-$23.7547127.8%131 W · 340 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9c2…db8abacked Portugal5c368.8$18 inLost-$18.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Portugal5c315.78$16 inLost-$16.293,21347.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.