Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal O/U 0.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e61e98b7a08cb6d104b6b43a8045f0ad2d6b73073390bbf8868c6449670f987

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jul 2, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $83,064
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $98,376

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,064 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under	14c	8,430$1,208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,208.29	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	75c	4,069$3,052 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,017.3	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56f4…9ec5backed Under	17c	4,010$692 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$691.55	413	31%128 W · 285 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under	22c	3,520$772 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$771.61	2,271	39.5%896 W · 1,375 L	+10.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	26c	3,107$815 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$815.49	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Under	13c	3,000$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$389.99	1,536	49.1%754 W · 782 L	+32.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under	18c	2,060$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.14	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under	15c	1,938$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.36	2,819	44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L	-36.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce7c…17cfbacked Under	14c	1,712$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.74	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under	25c	1,383$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.46	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under	14c	1,077$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.59	3,213	47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under	14c	905.28$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.74	3,077	47%1,447 W · 1,630 L	-11.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36d8…925dbacked Over	67c	810.51$540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270.54	25	60%15 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	66cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under	16c	750$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	407	36.6%149 W · 258 L	+10.7wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over	80c	655$523 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.26	735	36.3%267 W · 468 L	-32.3wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc827…ff0fbacked Under	4c	622$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.88	114	12.3%14 W · 100 L	+10.2wins	+0.09per pick	3cpaid	+348.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under	9c	537.93$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.52	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ede…59e6backed Over	77c	504.23$388 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.97	42	66.7%28 W · 14 L	+4.4wins	+0.10per pick	56cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e34…63f7backed Under	13c	500$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	281	64.1%180 W · 101 L	+16.0wins	+0.06per pick	58cpaid	+7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f1b…9876backed Under	12c	450.56$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	327	33%108 W · 219 L	+9.6wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d1e…9e97backed Over	68c	441.18$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.18	282	51.4%145 W · 137 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Under	13c	434.58$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.5	674	47.6%321 W · 353 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Under	12c	414.08$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.08	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Over	78c	363$282 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.49	1,438	40.1%576 W · 862 L	-40.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb31b…d703backed Over	69c	362.32$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.32	115	55.7%64 W · 51 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8320…e302backed Under	13c	339.98$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.2	301	37.2%112 W · 189 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb51c…5118backed Under	32c	312.5$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	-4.2wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x68b7…0812backed Under	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	49	22.4%11 W · 38 L	+9.0wins	+0.18per pick	4cpaid	+703%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2c47…fc6dbacked Under	26c	286.33$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.35	129	54.3%70 W · 59 L	+14.2wins	+0.11per pick	43cpaid	+89.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under	13c	284.59$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.05	1,945	42.7%831 W · 1,114 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under	5c	278.29$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.48	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x788c…8c15backed Over	73c	274.3$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.3	80	36.3%29 W · 51 L	-7.6wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x86a6…1b3ebacked Under	36c	261.17$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	452	48.9%221 W · 231 L	+7.7wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	13c	223$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.99	1,711	35.2%603 W · 1,108 L	-68.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f8b…4ca3backed Over	73c	212.73$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.44	108	44.4%48 W · 60 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5088…cfc5backed Under	16c	187.5$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	154	40.3%62 W · 92 L	+11.9wins	+0.08per pick	33cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2184…4c8ebacked Over	68c	176.47$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.47	39	59%23 W · 16 L	+5.3wins	+0.13per pick	46cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc0f…b9d0backed Over	66c	173.35$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.94	40	37.5%15 W · 25 L	-3.2wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe481…d138backed Under	15c	165.04$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.13	328	37.2%122 W · 206 L	+7.7wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b1f…f549backed Over	80c	162.88$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.58	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over	67c	157.89$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.1	1,627	32.1%523 W · 1,104 L	+4.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3dc1…1cd3backed Over	66c	151.52$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.52	96	51%49 W · 47 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x257a…b42abacked Under	34c	147.06$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	165	24.2%40 W · 125 L	-11.2wins	-0.07per pick	31cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7200…8557backed Over	69c	142.43$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.3	46	50%23 W · 23 L	+4.9wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xffe7…471dbacked Over	72c	138.89$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.89	352	51.7%182 W · 170 L	-9.0wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed Under	16c	125.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.72	78	23.1%18 W · 60 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Over	80c	125$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	60	53.3%32 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Over	78c	122.75$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.08	1,354	38.9%527 W · 827 L	-55.8wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfecb…4c05backed Under	14c	110$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	88	45.5%40 W · 48 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x859f…0f26backed Over	73c	108.22$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.22	55	38.2%21 W · 34 L	-4.9wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Over	76c	100$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	81	61.7%50 W · 31 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x80ed…ce26backed Over	77c	100$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	105	51.4%54 W · 51 L	-6.9wins	-0.07per pick	58cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed Under	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	189	11.1%21 W · 168 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd358…cfbdbacked Over	73c	100$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.39per pick	73cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked Under	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked Over	75c	97.75$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.44	175	69.1%121 W · 54 L	+14.4wins	+0.08per pick	61cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1bea…a7e6backed Over	74c	95.75$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.9	176	59.7%105 W · 71 L	+25.3wins	+0.14per pick	45cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3803…7eafbacked Over	70c	85.59$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.25	208	50.5%105 W · 103 L	+16.9wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+95.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xffdc…f0bdbacked Over	67c	74.85$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.85	10	30%3 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1be…76eebacked Over	67c	74.63$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.63	64	29.7%19 W · 45 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d7a…751abacked Under	29c	73.34$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.27	732	34.6%253 W · 479 L	-22.2wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd016…6114backed Under	33c	68.29$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.55	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-2.4wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x16b9…a8e7backed Over	72c	59.39$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.63	46	58.7%27 W · 19 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under	22c	56$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.44	2,327	18.1%422 W · 1,905 L	-363.0wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4359…1260backed Over	73c	54.8$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.8	88	64.8%57 W · 31 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over	78c	50.03$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.21	2,793	46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L	-10.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2126…aeebbacked Under	35c	50$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	414	44.9%186 W · 228 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc3f…efffbacked Over	68c	42.87$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.87	99	55.6%55 W · 44 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3743…7bc1backed Over	73c	41.1$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.1	196	60.7%119 W · 77 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xade7…9d34backed Over	76c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.1	222	58.6%130 W · 92 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a4…7077backed Over	69c	26.09$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.09	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	56cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72a3…785fbacked Over	64c	24.95$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.98	200	49.5%99 W · 101 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…e36dbacked Over	73c	24.66$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.66	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Over	80c	24.55$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.91	1,475	44.9%663 W · 812 L	-4.8wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2440…042dbacked Over	66c	23.59$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.02	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…c208backed Over	73c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	190	47.9%91 W · 99 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over	73c	18.77$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.07	218	58.7%128 W · 90 L	+5.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal O/U 0.5this page
Portugal vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal O/U 1.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to AdvancePortugal won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?No won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?No won
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)Portugal won
Spread: Croatia (-2.5)Portugal won
Spread: Croatia (-3.5)Portugal won
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)Croatia won
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)Croatia won
Spread: Portugal (-3.5)Croatia won
Spread: Portugal (-5.5)Croatia won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal O/U 0.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event