Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35f1d15a1a9b45af943772bad942d54734b806dd7f2fde964d3018051e5ad600

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jul 2, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $160,889
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $166,321

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,889 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	79c	65,410$51,914 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,496.29	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked Over	27c	40,000$10,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,799.97	89	43.8%39 W · 50 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over	12c	17,472$2,052 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,052.46	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb49…693ebacked Under	73c	8,219$6,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,219.18	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	30cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over	8c	8,005$648 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$648.12	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe987…f0e1backed Over	27c	5,000$1,350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,350	380	26.6%101 W · 279 L	-10.0wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Over	12c	4,559$559 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$558.7	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over	14c	2,448$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.06	1,492	41%612 W · 880 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c3a…a56bbacked Under	73c	2,000$1,460 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$540	226	43.4%98 W · 128 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under	74c	1,837$1,359 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$477.61	2,271	39.5%896 W · 1,375 L	+10.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over	12c	1,793$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.24	1,669	41.6%694 W · 975 L	+15.9wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fa6…17bebacked Under	75c	1,334$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$333.57	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	62cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under	73c	1,262$923 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$338.33	3,077	47%1,447 W · 1,630 L	-11.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under	73c	1,250$916 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$333.68	3,213	47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd238…ee03backed Over	27c	1,163$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.8	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+1.8wins	+0.10per pick	43cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over	3c	727.25$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.05	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over	25c	657.86$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.56	1,945	42.7%831 W · 1,114 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Under	73c	652.65$476 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176.38	1,313	48.9%642 W · 671 L	+12.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed Over	6c	629.47$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.76	78	23.1%18 W · 60 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15f4…02dfbacked Over	4c	626.53$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.13per pick	54cpaid	+27.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b7f…d56cbacked Over	4c	626$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.15	825	37.1%306 W · 519 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over	27c	594.09$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.97	2,819	44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L	-36.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa678…bc50backed Over	27c	550$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.5	67	49.3%33 W · 34 L	+4.7wins	+0.07per pick	42cpaid	+52.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e26…8991backed Over	28c	535.71$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	161	36%58 W · 103 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Under	73c	517$377 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$139.72	1,390	46.3%644 W · 746 L	+20.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over	26c	512$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.12	1,873	48.4%906 W · 967 L	+14.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa209…ffbebacked Over	8c	508$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.24	594	53.4%317 W · 277 L	+43.8wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed Under	72c	501$361 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.28	617	52%321 W · 296 L	-13.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc36…d35dbacked Over	28c	500$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	79	45.6%36 W · 43 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Over	27c	499.99$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	471	27.8%131 W · 340 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Over	26c	499.96$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.99	206	38.8%80 W · 126 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Under	74c	497.8$368 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.43	68	33.8%23 W · 45 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c3…ac23backed Under	72c	495$356 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.6	957	39.5%378 W · 579 L	-18.4wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	27c	422.62$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.58	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over	10c	415.26$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.52	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under	73c	385.56$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.01	2,805	55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L	+70.4wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc820…49debacked Under	79c	379.75$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.75	56	66.1%37 W · 19 L	+5.2wins	+0.09per pick	57cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfae6…3fe9backed Over	30c	333.36$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	+5.8wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Under	74c	304$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.04	673	54.7%368 W · 305 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Over	9c	300$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.34	1,354	38.9%527 W · 827 L	-55.8wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd708…b9d2backed Over	28c	267.86$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	97	51.5%50 W · 47 L	+4.7wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Under	72c	234.51$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.63	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	72c	225.86$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.84	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed Over	26c	192$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.92	55	29.1%16 W · 39 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe90f…4148backed Over	28c	170.57$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.76	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Over	26c	148$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.48	266	31.2%83 W · 183 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ba6…9da0backed Over	28c	142.86$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked Over	27c	121.56$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.82	465	46.7%217 W · 248 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc3c…b218backed Under	74c	120$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	118	54.2%64 W · 54 L	+9.0wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over	10c	118.47$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.85	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…6e4ebacked Under	71c	110$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.9	74	75.7%56 W · 18 L	+10.8wins	+0.15per pick	61cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9403…7361backed Over	28c	107.14$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	155	22.6%35 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under	74c	103.84$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.88	425	54.4%231 W · 194 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Over	17c	103.44$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.76	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over	27c	100$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	977	42%410 W · 567 L	-6.5wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35ae…b929backed Over	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	80	32.5%26 W · 54 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe13a…e4f6backed Over	26c	96.15$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1911…5d7dbacked Over	11c	91$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x533b…0a9ebacked Over	27c	89.19$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.08	232	27.6%64 W · 168 L	-12.1wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over	29c	80$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	1,306	44.7%584 W · 722 L	-9.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under	79c	75.31$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.82	632	55.7%352 W · 280 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Over	26c	71$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.46	259	48.6%126 W · 133 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Under	72c	70$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.6	1,293	53.6%693 W · 600 L	+12.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Over	29c	64.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.52	2,231	49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L	-21.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Over	29c	60$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	702	44.6%313 W · 389 L	+13.8wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c6…7b39backed Over	29c	53.01$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.19	489	37%181 W · 308 L	-10.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0341…9294backed Over	30c	52.58$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	494	26.7%132 W · 362 L	-9.8wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31c…e5a1backed Over	30c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	117	40.2%47 W · 70 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20aa…b3dcbacked Over	29c	48.28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	70	45.7%32 W · 38 L	+5.0wins	+0.07per pick	39cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4993…553fbacked Under	73c	39.53$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.7	321	58.3%187 W · 134 L	+9.3wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Under	73c	30$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.2	481	54.9%264 W · 217 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ad6…eed6backed Under	73c	30$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.1	229	57.6%132 W · 97 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe50e…45c5backed Under	54c	28$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.88	329	59.6%196 W · 133 L	+21.3wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under	73c	27.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.46	864	55.3%478 W · 386 L	+8.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40d6…9892backed Under	73c	22.12$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.87	549	56.8%312 W · 237 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeff1…3042backed Under	71c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.8	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x4e52…44e7backed Under	79c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.2	84	42.9%36 W · 48 L	-4.7wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5522…c807backed Under	72c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.6	160	56.3%90 W · 70 L	-14.6wins	-0.09per pick	65cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2176…bc30backed Under	73c	16.6$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.48	276	63%174 W · 102 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal O/U 2.5this page
Portugal vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal O/U 1.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to AdvancePortugal won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?No won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?No won
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)Portugal won
Spread: Croatia (-2.5)Portugal won
Spread: Croatia (-3.5)Portugal won
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)Croatia won
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)Croatia won
Spread: Portugal (-3.5)Croatia won
Spread: Portugal (-5.5)Croatia won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event