Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d0abf7c16f624d2137733806fd7b97f2bd6d2908cf8ec0a4a1d7c9bb58e8b9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Croatiaof Portugal, Croatia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $231,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $233,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Portugal | 13c | 44,542$5,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,731.13 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Portugal | 15c | 13,498$1,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,983.5 | 1,536 | 49.1%754 W · 782 L | +32.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f4…c1f1backed Portugal | 14c | 13,483$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920.48 | 81 | 35.8%29 W · 52 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Portugal | 8c | 8,225$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.59 | 1,627 | 32.1%523 W · 1,104 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Portugal | 0c | 5,660$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Portugal | 6c | 5,519$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.16 | 1,044 | 43.7%456 W · 588 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fd…748bbacked Portugal | 15c | 4,463$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Portugal | 7c | 4,071$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.14 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Portugal | 12c | 3,985$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.18 | 372 | 23.4%87 W · 285 L | -25.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Portugal | 13c | 3,851$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.73 | 361 | 23.5%85 W · 276 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c6…367dbacked Portugal | 14c | 3,544$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.96 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Portugal | 13c | 3,300$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.69 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe987…f0e1backed Portugal | 15c | 3,000$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.99 | 380 | 26.6%101 W · 279 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed Portugal | 11c | 2,832$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Portugal | 15c | 2,670$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 674 | 47.6%321 W · 353 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Portugal | 14c | 2,465$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.81 | 250 | 19.6%49 W · 201 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Portugal | 14c | 2,308$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.57 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa678…bc50backed Portugal | 14c | 2,200$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Portugal | 15c | 1,785$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.75 | 360 | 31.7%114 W · 246 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f41…e6aebacked Portugal | 15c | 1,286$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.07 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Portugal | 14c | 1,250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.14 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…59f5backed Portugal | 15c | 1,247$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 608 | 21.9%133 W · 475 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3f…5a9fbacked Portugal | 13c | 1,176$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2a…4fd0backed Portugal | 15c | 1,171$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.65 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed Portugal | 14c | 1,100$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Portugal | 14c | 1,088$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.29 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Portugal | 14c | 1,062$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 894 | 43.4%388 W · 506 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Portugal | 2c | 866.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…00bcbacked Portugal | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0823…ec6abacked Portugal | 15c | 695.12$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.27 | 431 | 39%168 W · 263 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c5…9d0dbacked Portugal | 16c | 661.65$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.21 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Portugal | 14c | 499.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 471 | 27.8%131 W · 340 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…7d20backed Portugal | 14c | 429.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed Portugal | 14c | 386.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa9…8c7bbacked Portugal | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe67d…8180backed Portugal | 15c | 313.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Portugal | 14c | 300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 977 | 42%410 W · 567 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Portugal | 14c | 271.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 1,945 | 42.7%831 W · 1,114 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c0…f73abacked Portugal | 15c | 262.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 37.7%43 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361b…74febacked Portugal | 15c | 233.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 510 | 32.5%166 W · 344 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Portugal | 14c | 220.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9db…f098backed Portugal | 15c | 196.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -66%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Portugal | 7c | 191.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Portugal | 16c | 127.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked Portugal | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 698 | 26.1%182 W · 516 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x330f…91b1backed Portugal | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ee…150abacked Portugal | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Portugal | 15c | 99.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 1,111 | 24.3%270 W · 841 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Portugal | 14c | 82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1,240 | 43.7%542 W · 698 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Portugal | 14c | 71.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 227 | 31.7%72 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Portugal (-2.5)this page
- Portugal vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal O/U 0.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal O/U 1.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal O/U 2.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to AdvancePortugal won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?No won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?No won
- Spread: Croatia (-1.5)Portugal won
- Spread: Croatia (-2.5)Portugal won
- Spread: Croatia (-3.5)Portugal won
- Spread: Portugal (-1.5)Croatia won
- Spread: Portugal (-3.5)Croatia won
- Spread: Portugal (-5.5)Croatia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.