Spread: Croatia (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x982e955594dd766a4fff7115124ec2fe4abaf0bcc660392fac6a59ee382c5b2f

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Portugalof Croatia, Portugal
Resolved: Jul 2, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $330,962
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $366,083

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $330,962 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Croatia	4c	76,460$3,246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,245.64	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Croatia	9c	12,602$1,171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,170.96	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee39…c0fbbacked Croatia	5c	10,918$519 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$518.58	42	21.4%9 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Croatia	5c	8,723$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$413.42	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8325…19ccbacked Croatia	7c	7,918$559 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$559.19	668	46.7%312 W · 356 L	+45.9wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Croatia	5c	7,574$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.66	1,985	32.5%645 W · 1,340 L	-47.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Croatia	5c	6,590$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.84	360	31.7%114 W · 246 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Croatia	3c	5,617$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.29	372	23.4%87 W · 285 L	-25.7wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Croatia	4c	5,432$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.89	1,627	32.1%523 W · 1,104 L	+4.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefa7…b25bbacked Croatia	5c	3,809$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	43	41.9%18 W · 25 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Croatia	5c	3,700$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.43	1,941	35.5%690 W · 1,251 L	-25.4wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda2b…9adcbacked Croatia	5c	3,075$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.73	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Croatia	6c	2,914$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.8	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Croatia	11c	2,840$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.98	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Croatia	6c	2,691$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.71	753	35.6%268 W · 485 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Croatia	4c	2,551$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.56	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x382c…a0d7backed Croatia	5c	2,000$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a26…095abacked Croatia	5c	1,877$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.83	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Croatia	9c	1,801$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.71	1,354	38.9%527 W · 827 L	-55.8wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3670…18e8backed Croatia	5c	1,284$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.63	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	-6.1wins	-0.10per pick	23cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Croatia	5c	1,206$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.3	1,560	43.8%684 W · 876 L	-4.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf916…2763backed Croatia	3c	1,162$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.85	87	46%40 W · 47 L	+8.2wins	+0.09per pick	37cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd991…c161backed Croatia	5c	1,053$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Croatia	13c	991.33$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.36	312	32.4%101 W · 211 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3ba…e793backed Croatia	13c	909.39$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.33	208	56.7%118 W · 90 L	+8.2wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62c9…7304backed Croatia	6c	869.57$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	89	13.5%12 W · 77 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51be…2df3backed Croatia	6c	833.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89df…f8d0backed Croatia	7c	800$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	142	45.8%65 W · 77 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37ab…cdafbacked Croatia	3c	748.7$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.46	100	14%14 W · 86 L	+11.0wins	+0.11per pick	3cpaid	+445.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0823…ec6abacked Croatia	7c	727.56$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.11	431	39%168 W · 263 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6bad…4d53backed Croatia	5c	600$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	185	10.8%20 W · 165 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde3d…6b1fbacked Croatia	5c	571.43$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Croatia	6c	525$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.85	1,252	39.2%491 W · 761 L	+6.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf69c…44dbbacked Croatia	15c	494.05$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	63	44.4%28 W · 35 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd546…657bbacked Croatia	5c	476.19$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	306	7.8%24 W · 282 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Croatia	9c	410.37$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.93	1,563	39.8%622 W · 941 L	-51.9wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d4e…4accbacked Croatia	5c	382$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.1	81	21%17 W · 64 L	-9.3wins	-0.11per pick	32cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Croatia	5c	380.95$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	79	29.1%23 W · 56 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Croatia	7c	376.57$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.26	719	39.1%281 W · 438 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-33%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x052e…10fdbacked Croatia	14c	360.1$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-2.6wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-59.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7be0…35c3backed Croatia	6c	347.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb48…9c83backed Croatia	6c	339.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Croatia	20c	322.87$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.08	384	37%142 W · 242 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Croatia	8c	317.27$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.96	1,438	40.1%576 W · 862 L	-40.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…47e7backed Croatia	6c	300$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	65	16.9%11 W · 54 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed Croatia	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	106	14.2%15 W · 91 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked Croatia	5c	300$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.75	128	29.7%38 W · 90 L	-5.2wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x372e…4453backed Croatia	6c	300$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	148	29.1%43 W · 105 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54da…1facbacked Portugal	78c	280.94$218 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.11	153	41.8%64 W · 89 L	-5.5wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Croatia	14c	279.6$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.07	872	37.8%330 W · 542 L	-39.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x05cc…679bbacked Croatia	6c	249.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-3.0wins	-0.18per pick	31cpaid	-69.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xed85…be20backed Croatia	6c	240$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	88	33%29 W · 59 L	+10.7wins	+0.12per pick	21cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	61+0.09 edge/pick
0x75a5…a5bfbacked Croatia	5c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+2.3wins	+0.13per pick	39cpaid	+20%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a0e…c7a6backed Croatia	5c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	37	35.1%13 W · 24 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66bc…25c9backed Croatia	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	332	21.7%72 W · 260 L	-8.8wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c1c…66e9backed Croatia	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	31cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8095…97b6backed Croatia	15c	197.37$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.58	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x665a…7005backed Croatia	14c	155.79$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.59	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb7c…03f9backed Croatia	15c	134.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	191	52.4%100 W · 91 L	+9.4wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Croatia	23c	50$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.62	650	36.9%240 W · 410 L	-27.9wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-28%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Portugal	77c	50$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.5	1,795	44.2%794 W · 1,001 L	-12.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Croatia (-1.5)this page
Portugal vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal O/U 1.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to AdvancePortugal won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?No won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?No won
Spread: Croatia (-2.5)Portugal won
Spread: Croatia (-3.5)Portugal won
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)Croatia won
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)Croatia won
Spread: Portugal (-3.5)Croatia won
Spread: Portugal (-5.5)Croatia won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Croatia (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event