Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18cbd29619439560e09e2683d1b8f3a0195dd0b46f0dce650e0978fb14475812

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jul 2, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $403,970
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $423,179

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $403,970 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Over	4c	72,476$3,155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,154.98	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over	4c	20,054$716 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$716.37	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d8…9e8dbacked Over	1c	10,675$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	501	46.1%231 W · 270 L	+14.2wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Over	17c	9,446$1,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,600	263	20.5%54 W · 209 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over	2c	8,504$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.82	1,252	39.2%491 W · 761 L	+6.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over	4c	7,440$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.53	1,627	32.1%523 W · 1,104 L	+4.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	7c	7,204$531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530.82	1,711	35.2%603 W · 1,108 L	-68.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over	3c	7,074$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.89	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e63…0857backed Over	3c	6,186$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.01	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Over	17c	5,072$851 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$851.29	1,985	32.5%645 W · 1,340 L	-47.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06f2…1269backed Over	8c	5,000$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$377.82	383	33.9%130 W · 253 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over	14c	5,000$712 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$712.49	592	30.1%178 W · 414 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over	14c	4,406$617 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$616.91	744	47.8%356 W · 388 L	+11.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	12c	4,259$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496.84	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over	14c	4,076$579 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$578.82	360	31.7%114 W · 246 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Over	1c	3,128$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.85	186	28.5%53 W · 133 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Over	5c	3,106$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.79	213	14.1%30 W · 183 L	+14.3wins	+0.07per pick	7cpaid	+135.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over	14c	2,101$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.07	1,873	48.4%906 W · 967 L	+14.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0886…b3a6backed Over	16c	1,875$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	329	22.5%74 W · 255 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d3…9364backed Over	16c	1,835$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.97	119	34.5%41 W · 78 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over	7c	1,713$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.4	1,941	35.5%690 W · 1,251 L	-25.4wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed Over	14c	1,589$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.15	78	34.6%27 W · 51 L	+4.6wins	+0.06per pick	29cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Over	8c	1,382$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.37	372	23.4%87 W · 285 L	-25.7wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over	2c	1,318$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.36	2,533	46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L	+12.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x26f1…6d2fbacked Over	6c	1,263$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.65	73	42.5%31 W · 42 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5415…f764backed Over	15c	1,259$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.67	94	28.7%27 W · 67 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over	15c	1,139$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	103	30.1%31 W · 72 L	-6.4wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xadf4…069ebacked Over	17c	1,025$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	143	23.1%33 W · 110 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa278…3369backed Over	3c	990.13$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.32	1,111	24.3%270 W · 841 L	-32.2wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Over	2c	825.9$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.37	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64ef…befcbacked Over	13c	810.17$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.32	303	45.2%137 W · 166 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0823…ec6abacked Over	12c	736.17$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.34	431	39%168 W · 263 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x649f…112dbacked Over	14c	720.77$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	31cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37d9…5442backed Over	15c	677.97$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	314	35.7%112 W · 202 L	-11.2wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-16%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc096…9e8dbacked Over	15c	677.97$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	113	35.4%40 W · 73 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	+42.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8192…e1b9backed Over	15c	670$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.5	101	35.6%36 W · 65 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over	3c	597.4$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.9	1,669	41.6%694 W · 975 L	+15.9wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	3c	593.55$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.64	1,559	52.4%817 W · 742 L	+97.8wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over	6c	547$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.19	735	36.3%267 W · 468 L	-32.3wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Over	3c	500$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.47	589	26.8%158 W · 431 L	-30.5wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked Over	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	455	36.9%168 W · 287 L	-26.9wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6e0…ff0fbacked Over	14c	500$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	289	45.3%131 W · 158 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88ff…5102backed Over	15c	402.43$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	143	17.5%25 W · 118 L	-7.5wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x372e…4453backed Over	17c	399.99$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	148	29.1%43 W · 105 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Over	5c	372.71$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.84	312	32.4%101 W · 211 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5537…f9c8backed Over	14c	350.88$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	194	42.3%82 W · 112 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over	3c	340$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.84	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6dfb…f1b7backed Over	4c	336$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.91	782	34.3%268 W · 514 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Over	15c	315.67$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.44	1,045	29.3%306 W · 739 L	-10.8wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…6fabbacked Over	17c	303.03$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	109	44%48 W · 61 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Over	14c	300$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.75	438	19.2%84 W · 354 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06be…8a46backed Over	17c	300$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	99	19.2%19 W · 80 L	+3.7wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65c5…e92abacked Over	14c	280.79$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	68	27.9%19 W · 49 L	-6.0wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf663…6368backed Over	6c	268.07$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.46	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.14per pick	26cpaid	+266%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72e0…08eebacked Over	16c	267.76$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.18	262	43.1%113 W · 149 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x786d…b89bbacked Over	15c	266.67$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	522	17.4%91 W · 431 L	-11.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over	5c	264.9$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Over	16c	260$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.25	702	44.6%313 W · 389 L	+13.8wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x118c…ae45backed Over	14c	250.55$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	251	15.5%39 W · 212 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over	14c	236.91$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.73	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe481…d138backed Over	15c	220.02$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.5	328	37.2%122 W · 206 L	+7.7wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1330…b4b5backed Over	15c	209.97$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.35	129	27.1%35 W · 94 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d57…9d36backed Over	16c	187.5$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	63	17.5%11 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over	7c	166.03$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.02	384	37%142 W · 242 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over	14c	150$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	977	42%410 W · 567 L	-6.5wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc874…e0c8backed Over	17c	125.37$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	68	23.5%16 W · 52 L	-4.9wins	-0.07per pick	31cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0bb1…daf7backed Over	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	188	21.8%41 W · 147 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4514…a122backed Over	16c	123.08$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Over	16c	114.29$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	823	40.9%337 W · 486 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89c5…24d1backed Over	16c	104.25$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.68	90	20%18 W · 72 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Over	14c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	130	38.5%50 W · 80 L	+9.1wins	+0.07per pick	31cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x387a…8eaebacked Over	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	329	28%92 W · 237 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Over	16c	99.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.25	51	29.4%15 W · 36 L	-6.3wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfb07…834ebacked Over	16c	93.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	44	38.6%17 W · 27 L	+3.2wins	+0.07per pick	31cpaid	+79.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4d3…5639backed Over	14c	90.21$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.63	42	38.1%16 W · 26 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xac36…b1e1backed Over	15c	88.14$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	37	35.1%13 W · 24 L	-5.2wins	-0.14per pick	49cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbdb2…7ab1backed Over	17c	67.02$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.29	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5this page
Portugal vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal O/U 1.5Over won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to AdvancePortugal won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?No won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?No won
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)Portugal won
Spread: Croatia (-2.5)Portugal won
Spread: Croatia (-3.5)Portugal won
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)Croatia won
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)Croatia won
Spread: Portugal (-3.5)Croatia won
Spread: Portugal (-5.5)Croatia won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event