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Fifa International · resolved market

New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$89,746
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,531

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,746 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x033f…618ebacked Over4c18,436$778 inLost-$777.9365737.4%246 W · 411 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over8c17,830$1,503 inLost-$1,503.031,25239.2%491 W · 761 L+6.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-20.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over6c6,767$389 inLost-$389.058,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over7c4,178$308 inLost-$307.952,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfde6…7ed6backed Over4c4,000$168 inLost-$16842710.3%44 W · 383 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over10c2,850$294 inLost-$294.44,02738.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L-26.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf639…4a74backed Over5c2,106$100 inLost-$10017322.5%39 W · 134 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over6c2,013$126 inLost-$126.451,49241%612 W · 880 L-1.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Over12c2,000$244 inLost-$24435424%85 W · 269 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Over6c702.03$43 inLost-$42.552,63432.9%867 W · 1,767 L+43.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e61…0e06backed Over16c700$110 inLost-$11033120.8%69 W · 262 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over13c612.25$79 inLost-$79.183,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d7a…751abacked Over5c564.27$30 inLost-$30.4573234.6%253 W · 479 L-22.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c58…e2a4backed Over10c500$49 inLost-$491723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over12c472.36$57 inLost-$56.882,80446.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L-27.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffe7…89bfbacked Over5c420$19 inLost-$19.321118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed Over5c400$21 inLost-$20.810614.2%15 W · 91 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick16cpaid+5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86fc…55ccbacked Over5c357.12$19 inLost-$18.5710335%36 W · 67 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-22.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over9c353.25$31 inLost-$31.331,66941.6%694 W · 975 L+15.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Over5c346.15$18 inLost-$1843819.2%84 W · 354 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over24c340.5$82 inLost-$81.772,79346.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L-10.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13d0…4a70backed Over8c329$28 inLost-$27.6632433.6%109 W · 215 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa209…ffbebacked Over9c315$28 inLost-$28.3559453.4%317 W · 277 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over6c250.74$14 inLost-$14.442,97328%831 W · 2,142 L-132.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Under78c185.48$145 inWon+$40.170750.1%354 W · 353 L+25.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Over13c150$20 inLost-$19.951,38040.2%555 W · 825 L-51.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Over13c150$20 inLost-$19.971,43840.1%576 W · 862 L-40.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Over28c125$34 inLost-$34.52,62641.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L-11.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.