Fifa International · resolved market
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7306aa438ce6e9a3a3e5004562bc5a32f943e6d18f1aae891dbd546d566fe01b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 8c | 18,607$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.62 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5e…fd91backed Under | 10c | 10,528$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.78 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 6c | 8,798$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.85 | 1,044 | 43.7%456 W · 588 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…20dabacked Under | 17c | 8,782$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.87 | 137 | 31.4%43 W · 94 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 7c | 5,761$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.27 | 702 | 44.6%313 W · 389 L | +13.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed Under | 7c | 5,555$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.85 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…8654backed Under | 15c | 4,593$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.81 | 441 | 30.8%136 W · 305 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 1c | 3,976$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 213 | 14.1%30 W · 183 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +135.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…7a59backed Under | 1c | 3,615$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 6c | 2,387$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.78 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 9c | 1,862$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.48 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f8…003dbacked Under | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 94 | 8.5%8 W · 86 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 8c | 1,095$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.52 | 855 | 50.6%433 W · 422 L | +54.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 6c | 1,080$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Under | 10c | 1,007$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.72 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 16c | 876.23$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.2 | 1,627 | 32.1%523 W · 1,104 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Under | 9c | 714$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 7c | 658.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 753 | 35.6%268 W · 485 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…ac23backed Under | 7c | 499.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 957 | 39.5%378 W · 579 L | -18.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed Under | 7c | 475.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 565 | 41.1%232 W · 333 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c20…41b3backed Under | 6c | 446.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 181 | 18.2%33 W · 148 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 14c | 432.71$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 695 | 34.8%242 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a4…895bbacked Under | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 6c | 321.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 2,271 | 39.5%896 W · 1,375 L | +10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Under | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 248 | 25.8%64 W · 184 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked Under | 9c | 273.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 825 | 37.1%306 W · 519 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 6c | 265.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked Under | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 323 | 17.6%57 W · 266 L | -43.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x305e…b28bbacked Under | 15c | 162.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 261 | 33.3%87 W · 174 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 7c | 152.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1,114 | 49.4%550 W · 564 L | +57.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee5…96d8backed Under | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0691…c0f5backed Under | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed Under | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 221 | 47.1%104 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Under | 13c | 83.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79ef…e9d8backed Under | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5this page
- Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
- Norway vs. Senegal: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Norway vs. Senegal: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Norway vs. Senegal: Norway 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5Over won
- Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5Over won
- Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5Over won
- Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5Over won
- Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5Over won
- Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5Over won
- Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5Over won
- Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5Under won
- Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5Under won
- Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5Under won
- Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5Under won
- Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5Over won
- Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5Over won
- Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Norway (-1.5)Senegal won
- Spread: Norway (-2.5)Senegal won
- Spread: Norway (-3.5)Senegal won
- Spread: Senegal (-1.5)Norway won
- Spread: Senegal (-2.5)Norway won
- Spread: Senegal (-5.5)Norway won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.