TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x79ef…e9d8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
55
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Middle East, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 57 out of 100; worst UFC at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT2142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$137
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.94
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.4
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.42
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+32.3%+$6.43
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+400%+$42.76
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.9
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$21.25
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$13.44
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.94
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$11.29
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$17.04
Scotland leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$31.22
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+180.6%+$36.11
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$14.66
All 21 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick33cpaid+72.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+525%+$73.5
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$21.5
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+203%+$33.5
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+241.2%+$66.65
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$22.29
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$31.97
All 11 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-75.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
UFC — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Aiemann Zahabi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Melquizael Costa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)backed Polyana Viana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Khamzat Chimaev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Jirí Procházka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.1
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Curtis Blaydes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.55
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early Prelims)backed Tatiana Suarez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$18.3
All 7 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+42.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+205.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+163.6%+$96.53
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+247.2%+$64.28
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+88%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+276.1%+$184.98
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$27.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Shifters - Game 2 Winnerbacked Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.66
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.