Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x679a4b22a47c046195a60b9c887a1fe1659258d965d239fe32e5cac4da1a0097

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 22, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $49,269
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $56,048

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,269 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Over	68c	12,077$8,262 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,815.22	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe987…f0e1backed Under	28c	10,000$2,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,799.99	380	26.6%101 W · 279 L	-10.0wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under	39c	3,782$1,478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,477.78	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab71…2adabacked Over	54c	2,303$1,250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,052.75	44	52.3%23 W · 21 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked Under	28c	2,000$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$559.99	644	43.3%279 W · 365 L	-10.9wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dd7…28d2backed Over	58c	1,704$988 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$715.62	117	50.4%59 W · 58 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8583…3f3cbacked Over	74c	1,338$989 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$348.8	86	52.3%45 W · 41 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	60c	1,235$741 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$494.02	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0f8…003dbacked Under	1c	1,100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	94	8.5%8 W · 86 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe1e…7ee3backed Under	36c	1,000$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	161	65.8%106 W · 55 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	64cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under	28c	781.11$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.71	2,805	55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L	+70.4wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16da…05c0backed Under	27c	689.08$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.63	219	37.9%83 W · 136 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…e2b8backed Over	74c	500$370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130	62	58.1%36 W · 26 L	+6.6wins	+0.11per pick	47cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Over	53c	499.99$265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235	169	46.2%78 W · 91 L	+7.8wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5d8…cf41backed Under	48c	417.7$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+57.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	45c	417.25$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.76	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a28…8962backed Under	48c	416.67$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	121	39.7%48 W · 73 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb54…8c93backed Over	72c	416.67$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.67	55	45.5%25 W · 30 L	-4.7wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Under	45c	371.46$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.16	565	41.1%232 W · 333 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb428…74c8backed Under	27c	370.37$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	208	41.3%86 W · 122 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6460…13cebacked Under	5c	348.38$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.42	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a0b…d29dbacked Under	47c	326.84$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.92	348	44.3%154 W · 194 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Under	46c	298.74$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.81	1,563	39.8%622 W · 941 L	-51.9wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4607…7811backed Over	72c	277.78$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.78	122	53.3%65 W · 57 L	+5.4wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Under	30c	268.39$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	137	29.9%41 W · 96 L	-12.9wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x304f…af95backed Over	72c	255.56$184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.56	22	81.8%18 W · 4 L	+4.7wins	+0.21per pick	60cpaid	+32.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8c7b…bd59backed Under	38c	248.87$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.5	221	47.1%104 W · 117 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	60c	247.6$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.99	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Under	28c	234.75$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.73	1,075	45.2%486 W · 589 L	+41.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x305e…b28bbacked Under	45c	228.28$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	261	33.3%87 W · 174 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Under	44c	228.28$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.44	176	42%74 W · 102 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb83e…9f42backed Under	46c	217.87$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.22	52	71.2%37 W · 15 L	+4.3wins	+0.08per pick	63cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Over	75c	205.66$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.08	1,536	49.1%754 W · 782 L	+32.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe65e…b719backed Over	54c	200$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92	170	40%68 W · 102 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Over	70c	200$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	142	44.4%63 W · 79 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over	75c	188.2$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.05	157	63.7%100 W · 57 L	+16.2wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+16%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9f90…4c92backed Over	55c	181.82$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.82	206	30.6%63 W · 143 L	-7.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed Over	54c	162.96$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.96	624	52.7%329 W · 295 L	+10.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e1…99dbbacked Over	57c	151$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.93	580	49.1%285 W · 295 L	+7.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7418…251fbacked Over	60c	146.91$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.91	111	67.6%75 W · 36 L	+9.2wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe398…ee2ebacked Over	71c	140.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.85	30	80%24 W · 6 L	+3.4wins	+0.11per pick	69cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca7e…f568backed Under	27c	128$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.52	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x57cc…cf38backed Over	57c	122.89$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.89	136	36.8%50 W · 86 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Over	69c	111.29$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.5	195	45.6%89 W · 106 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	36c	106.78$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.91	1,711	35.2%603 W · 1,108 L	-68.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under	28c	102.34$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.98	1,945	42.7%831 W · 1,114 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe620…03acbacked Over	55c	100$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	170	45.9%78 W · 92 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58a8…a3c7backed Over	55c	100$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	51	58.8%30 W · 21 L	+5.9wins	+0.12per pick	47cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfd43…7d3dbacked Under	29c	99.99$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	74	45.9%34 W · 40 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Under	25c	99.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	260	42.3%110 W · 150 L	+12.0wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5088…cfc5backed Under	31c	96.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	154	40.3%62 W · 92 L	+11.9wins	+0.08per pick	33cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Under	25c	96.2$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.05	1,114	49.4%550 W · 564 L	+57.3wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Under	38c	84.27$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.94	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb821…5cddbacked Over	72c	83.32$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.49	94	63.8%60 W · 34 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	66cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under	25c	82$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Under	41c	81.96$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.97	1,354	38.9%527 W · 827 L	-55.8wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over	70c	80.44$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.49	1,669	41.6%694 W · 975 L	+15.9wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over	71c	75$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.75	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d7a…751abacked Under	30c	74.21$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.26	732	34.6%253 W · 479 L	-22.2wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb99d…e4e5backed Over	71c	70.42$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.42	78	51.3%40 W · 38 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ca…2f70backed Over	72c	69.44$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.44	84	59.5%50 W · 34 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf788…6f86backed Over	73c	67.12$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.12	117	75.2%88 W · 29 L	+7.9wins	+0.07per pick	68cpaid	+11%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9dfd…aadebacked Over	55c	64$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.8	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	-3.2wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x70bd…3ecfbacked Under	45c	62.87$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	162	30.2%49 W · 113 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0cb…ac14backed Over	58c	60.34$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.34	50	22%11 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b7f…d56cbacked Over	53c	60$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.2	825	37.1%306 W · 519 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xade9…5c93backed Under	28c	53.57$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3300…ead7backed Over	55c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	175	58.9%103 W · 72 L	+8.7wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under	40c	44$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	2,793	46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L	-10.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d58…8f85backed Over	69c	42.72$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.24	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28e3…92cebacked Under	27c	40.56$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea4c…9f3bbacked Over	72c	40$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.2	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-2.1wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked Over	65c	40$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.8	350	34.3%120 W · 230 L	-24.0wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc429…1c89backed Over	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	156	51.9%81 W · 75 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x404a…19b2backed Over	68c	29.35$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.35	257	54.5%140 W · 117 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7bf8…8986backed Over	57c	26.32$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.32	188	50%94 W · 94 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd17…3818backed Over	57c	26.21$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.21	53	60.4%32 W · 21 L	+4.6wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9640…abbbbacked Under	46c	23.91$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	62	32.3%20 W · 42 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Over	72c	20.69$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.79	888	52.7%468 W · 420 L	+13.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f75…ce35backed Over	53c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	214	39.7%85 W · 129 L	+7.4wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28e6…0210backed Over	56c	19$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.36	88	63.6%56 W · 32 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	64cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc650…55a1backed Over	71c	19$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.46	293	63.1%185 W · 108 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	62cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over	72c	17.57$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.92	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44f6…1b65backed Over	64c	15.63$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.63	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5this page
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Over won
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5Over won
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5Over won
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5Over won
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5Over won
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5Over won
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5Over won
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5Over won
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5Over won
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5Under won
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5Under won
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5Under won
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5Under won
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5Over won
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5Under won
Spread: Norway (-1.5)Senegal won
Spread: Norway (-2.5)Senegal won
Spread: Norway (-3.5)Senegal won
Spread: Senegal (-1.5)Norway won
Spread: Senegal (-2.5)Norway won
Spread: Senegal (-5.5)Norway won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event