TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xdc64…9aa7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
35
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: NBA, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 54 out of 100; worst Commodities at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST2737%10 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jazz vs. Clippersbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$27.13
76ers vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$54.99
Heat vs. Pistonsbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+177.8%+$35.56
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+92.3%+$13.85
Suns vs. Cavaliersbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Kings vs. Clippersbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Pistons vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$49.96
Celtics vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$26
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazersbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$41.17
Hawks vs. Thunderbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Knicks vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$55
Magic vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+244.8%+$36.72
Timberwolves vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$13.72
Bucks vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Suns vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$18
Kings vs. Lakersbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$17.65
Grizzlies vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+252.2%+$34.23
Knicks vs. Hawksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+42.9%+$13.8
Jazz vs. Spursbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+348%+$104.39
Nets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+99.1%+$59.44
Nuggets vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+228.4%+$57.15
Suns vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Clippers vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$10.04
76ers vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+178%+$26.7
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rams vs. Falconsbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$383Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+27%+$103.58
Bears vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+49.3%+$10.84
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+25%+$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.