TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xea76…88ec

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
31
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Olympics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Olympics at 54 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT1625%4 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Harry Kane: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Harry Kane: 2+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.85
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$125
Spread: France (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+400%+$200
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Harry Kane: 2+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Harry Kane: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$78.21
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$138.46
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.39
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+31.2%+$17.18
All 16 picks, newest first.
UFClast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Ian Machado Garry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$187.5
UFC 330: Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)backed Mackenzie Dern · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$168.75
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Conor McGregor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
O/U 2.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Paddy Pimblett · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$122.22
UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Terrance McKinney · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Robert Whittaker · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$63.89
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+220%+$68.75
All 8 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-35.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+495.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Women's Final - USA vs. Canadabacked USA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+495.7%+$298.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$96.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.