TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf66e…d908

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
33
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Tennis, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 54 out of 100; worst NBA at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST2128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick38cpaid+4.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mavericks vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+166.7%+$33.34
Suns vs. Rocketsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$11
76ers vs. Thunderbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$13.65
Nets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+488.2%+$112.68
Mavericks vs. Kingsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Mavericks vs. Warriorsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Nets vs. 76ersbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+354.5%+$42.55
Mavericks vs. Pelicansbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$16.75
Suns vs. Warriorsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Raptors vs. Bucksbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+61.3%+$6.74
Kings vs. Timberwolvesbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Knicks vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Pacers vs. 76ersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Lakers vs. 76ersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+61.3%+$7.97
Rockets vs. Mavericksbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Celtics vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Pistons vs. Bucksbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$26
Mavericks vs. Nuggetsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+455.6%+$50.11
Cavaliers vs. Raptorsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Warriors vs. Heatbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$17
Timberwolves vs. Lakersbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
All 21 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Nov 21, 2025, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blues vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+81.8%+$24.55
Oilers vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+88.7%+$18.62
Stars vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$23
Wild vs. Hurricanesbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$18.5
Jets vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+81.8%+$24.55
Islanders vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$13.16
All 6 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 6, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+133.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
WTA Finals, Stefanie Graf Group: Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauffbacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+53.8%+$12.28
Jiangxi Open: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Hanyu Guobacked Bai · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$88.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Alabama State Hornets vs. Air Force Falconsbacked Air Force Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+75.4%+$21.5
Eastern Illinois Panthers vs. Valparaiso Beaconsbacked Valparaiso Beacons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+40.8%+$6.67
All 2 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
James Madison vs. Texas Statebacked James Madison · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.