Spread: Australia (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x028c93cfce859187d3b3c7d41bf35eeb1af09321be7da612771b5713cd251ebe

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Egyptof Australia, Egypt
Resolved: Jul 3, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $270,706
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $268,458

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $270,706 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Australia	1c	14,934$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.73	1,252	39.2%491 W · 761 L	+6.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Australia	2c	14,039$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.62	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Australia	1c	13,600$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.1	753	35.6%268 W · 485 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Australia	1c	13,368$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.75	1,627	32.1%523 W · 1,104 L	+4.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Australia	1c	10,684$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.14	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Australia	8c	10,305$828 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$827.83	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd995…2b51backed Australia	2c	9,961$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.72	46	6.5%3 W · 43 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-88.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Australia	9c	7,426$668 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$668.35	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed Australia	8c	6,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	222	29.7%66 W · 156 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Australia	1c	5,812$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.12	740	34.1%252 W · 488 L	-36.1wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Australia	3c	4,247$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.68	372	23.4%87 W · 285 L	-25.7wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ca3…2d23backed Australia	5c	3,935$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.48	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Australia	8c	3,487$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279	360	31.7%114 W · 246 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Australia	3c	3,254$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.31	312	32.4%101 W · 211 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe987…f0e1backed Australia	8c	3,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	380	26.6%101 W · 279 L	-10.0wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd823…5eafbacked Australia	1c	2,814$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.41	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5a5…5950backed Australia	4c	2,646$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.76	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-2.2wins	-0.12per pick	43cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Australia	8c	1,500$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.12	3,077	47%1,447 W · 1,630 L	-11.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked Australia	9c	1,500$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	549	17.9%98 W · 451 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Australia	8c	1,500$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	331	49.5%164 W · 167 L	+9.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Australia	1c	1,351$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.1	2,327	18.1%422 W · 1,905 L	-363.0wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf387…61c0backed Australia	2c	1,346$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.99	349	64.5%225 W · 124 L	+73.5wins	+0.21per pick	43cpaid	+123.1%equal weight	72+0.20 edge/pick
0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Australia	6c	1,208$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.74	249	47.4%118 W · 131 L	+14.2wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x62e9…e618backed Australia	5c	1,048$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.93	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	24cpaid	-86.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x848c…2bf0backed Australia	3c	1,024$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	221	22.2%49 W · 172 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa599…5230backed Australia	5c	1,020$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	285	35.8%102 W · 183 L	-11.1wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Australia	2c	1,007$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.68	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef84…6872backed Australia	2c	978.81$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.58	137	5.1%7 W · 130 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	2cpaid	+94.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56cb…9550backed Australia	9c	833.33$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	87	34.5%30 W · 57 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Australia	8c	806.84$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.55	3,213	47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Australia	3c	749.39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a5b…3772backed Australia	2c	625$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	9cpaid	-78.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8325…19ccbacked Australia	4c	589.98$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.91	668	46.7%312 W · 356 L	+45.9wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d6e…4018backed Australia	9c	555.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	91	14.3%13 W · 78 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0823…ec6abacked Australia	10c	538.78$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.88	431	39%168 W · 263 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3305…8210backed Australia	9c	527.3$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.46	94	45.7%43 W · 51 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e2…0d29backed Australia	2c	525.9$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Australia	5c	510.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.41	981	34.8%341 W · 640 L	-7.8wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e59…2a66backed Australia	5c	510.3$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.52	1,063	31.7%337 W · 726 L	-33.7wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdabd…6adabacked Australia	5c	510$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	444	35.4%157 W · 287 L	-11.7wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb9…bb3cbacked Australia	2c	499.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	55	16.4%9 W · 46 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Australia	8c	498.2$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.34	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab1c…aaddbacked Australia	8c	442.07$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.37	56	28.6%16 W · 40 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Australia	5c	437.46$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.38	384	37%142 W · 242 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Australia	7c	404$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.28	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9640…abbbbacked Australia	4c	380.34$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	62	32.3%20 W · 42 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78c1…473ebacked Australia	8c	375$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	513	15.6%80 W · 433 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…c175backed Australia	9c	333$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.97	76	17.1%13 W · 63 L	-5.0wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Australia	7c	307.15$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.34	1,560	43.8%684 W · 876 L	-4.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x307a…d612backed Australia	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	63	52.4%33 W · 30 L	+4.9wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+36.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Australia	8c	297.9$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.83	1,005	44.3%445 W · 560 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed Australia	8c	289.45$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.16	1,135	40.2%456 W · 679 L	+5.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6888…a61cbacked Australia	9c	277.78$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	144	30.6%44 W · 100 L	+10.5wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Australia	8c	235.83$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.87	1,945	42.7%831 W · 1,114 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6912…c24ebacked Australia	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	131	25.2%33 W · 98 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x08d5…1cbbbacked Australia	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	107	26.2%28 W · 79 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed Australia	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	106	14.2%15 W · 91 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed Australia	9c	200$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	189	11.1%21 W · 168 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd546…657bbacked Australia	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	306	7.8%24 W · 282 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3670…18e8backed Australia	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	-6.1wins	-0.10per pick	23cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe78e…6073backed Australia	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Australia	9c	192.63$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.26	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x779c…6f03backed Australia	9c	166.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	63	33.3%21 W · 42 L	-2.9wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57d9…fa69backed Australia	9c	166.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	+3.7wins	+0.11per pick	35cpaid	+32.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d7a…751abacked Australia	9c	164.48$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	732	34.6%253 W · 479 L	-22.2wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Australia	9c	138.78$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.49	436	35.8%156 W · 280 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Australia	9c	138.78$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.49	472	35%165 W · 307 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 42 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Australia (-1.5)this page
Australia vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Australia vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Australia vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Australia vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Australia vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Australia vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Australia vs. Egypt: Australia 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Australia vs. Egypt: Australia 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Australia vs. Egypt: Australia 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Australia vs. Egypt: Australia 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Australia vs. Egypt: Australia O/U 0.5Over won
Australia vs. Egypt: Australia O/U 1.5Under won
Australia vs. Egypt: Australia O/U 2.5Under won
Australia vs. Egypt: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Australia vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Australia vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
Australia vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Australia vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Australia vs. Egypt: Egypt 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Australia vs. Egypt: Egypt 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Australia vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5Over won
Australia vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5Under won
Australia vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5Under won
Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5Over won
Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5Over won
Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5Under won
Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5Under won
Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5Under won
Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5Under won
Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5Under won
Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5Under won
Australia vs. Egypt: Team to AdvanceEgypt won
Australia vs. Egypt: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?Yes won
Australia vs. Egypt: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?Yes won
Spread: Australia (-2.5)Egypt won
Spread: Australia (-3.5)Egypt won
Spread: Australia (-4.5)Egypt won
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)Australia won
Spread: Egypt (-2.5)Australia won
Spread: Egypt (-3.5)Australia won
Spread: Egypt (-4.5)Australia won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Australia (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event