Spread: United States (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25e0567b5ebd7ae2cf9d9f5483e2555ff2c4eab957bf3a6d2c37ef9e2477ae6d

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Australiaof United States, Australia
Resolved: Jun 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $219,893
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $206,039

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,893 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0346…52a5backed United States	8c	67,933$5,737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,737.01	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed United States	5c	10,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	716	38.4%275 W · 441 L	+8.7wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed United States	5c	10,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	207	24.6%51 W · 156 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed United States	12c	6,666$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$799.92	320	29.4%94 W · 226 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed United States	8c	6,072$466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465.84	1,627	32.1%523 W · 1,104 L	+4.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7042…c72bbacked United States	21c	4,687$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	71	47.9%34 W · 37 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed United States	12c	3,436$404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403.85	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked United States	15c	2,842$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.59	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf021…e900backed United States	2c	2,500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	364	37.1%135 W · 229 L	+16.5wins	+0.05per pick	33cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked United States	6c	2,086$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.68	257	19.1%49 W · 208 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77fc…0eacbacked United States	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	105	18.1%19 W · 86 L	-7.3wins	-0.07per pick	25cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed United States	5c	1,634$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.69	681	41.1%280 W · 401 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16a4…66adbacked United States	19c	1,579$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	175	18.3%32 W · 143 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ef…e0e3backed United States	19c	1,201$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.12	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee0b…e6d4backed United States	18c	1,007$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.25	66	34.8%23 W · 43 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed United States	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	66	22.7%15 W · 51 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeef3…2f9bbacked United States	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ea…2f71backed United States	27c	944.74$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.08	107	53.3%57 W · 50 L	+7.4wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked United States	9c	853.75$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.09	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0547…9926backed United States	6c	833.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	214	43%92 W · 122 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf639…4a74backed United States	6c	833.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed United States	7c	746.87$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.78	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked United States	5c	718.06$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.9	1,941	35.5%690 W · 1,251 L	-25.4wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0852…655cbacked United States	2c	600$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	536	29.9%160 W · 376 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed United States	5c	600$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	471	27.8%131 W · 340 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2917…b315backed United States	6c	583.33$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88f9…5c03backed United States	27c	546.78$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.57	115	59.1%68 W · 47 L	+11.0wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd9e2…d5b2backed United States	19c	527.3$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	63	38.1%24 W · 39 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e89…3e0abacked United States	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	267	16.1%43 W · 224 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed United States	8c	464.96$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.71	1,144	39.2%448 W · 696 L	-8.4wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76aa…eff9backed Australia	72c	436.66$314 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.46	257	53.3%137 W · 120 L	+23.5wins	+0.09per pick	44cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x86fc…55ccbacked United States	5c	408.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.43	103	35%36 W · 67 L	-7.1wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed United States	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,005	44.3%445 W · 560 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a74…9a36backed United States	6c	400$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	35	54.3%19 W · 16 L	+3.4wins	+0.10per pick	44cpaid	+47.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked United States	11c	393.85$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.22	1,380	40.2%555 W · 825 L	-51.6wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-23%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked United States	13c	389.34$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.53	2,793	46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L	-10.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf79c…cb96backed United States	5c	380.53$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.03	920	38.5%354 W · 566 L	-21.8wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a1e…0a03backed United States	5c	366.66$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	72	2.8%2 W · 70 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	9cpaid	-96.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked United States	14c	357.18$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.81	1,354	38.9%527 W · 827 L	-55.8wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd32e…b577backed United States	27c	353.63$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.48	112	54.5%61 W · 51 L	+8.0wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xce82…03d3backed United States	6c	348$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.43	73	21.9%16 W · 57 L	-5.8wins	-0.08per pick	30cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed United States	9c	272.31$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.68	1,563	39.8%622 W · 941 L	-51.9wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x81ed…59f5backed United States	6c	266.67$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	608	21.9%133 W · 475 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca0…cb82backed United States	19c	263.16$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	179	33.5%60 W · 119 L	-7.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb3e…b9c5backed United States	28c	258.28$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.96	99	62.6%62 W · 37 L	+12.4wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	+35.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x080f…a6debacked United States	11c	228.64$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	25cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d76…92b5backed United States	11c	227.27$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	94	28.7%27 W · 67 L	+7.6wins	+0.08per pick	21cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked United States	11c	219.02$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.09	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked United States	8c	206.12$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.25	1,438	40.1%576 W · 862 L	-40.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed United States	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1,421	47.8%679 W · 742 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7393…751abacked United States	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	200	3%6 W · 194 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-59.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked United States	21c	180$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.8	399	32.6%130 W · 269 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27b6…e8babacked United States	28c	178.57$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	53	47.2%25 W · 28 L	-4.7wins	-0.09per pick	56cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4bfc…f71dbacked United States	19c	157.89$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	168	27.4%46 W · 122 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe839…0a9dbacked United States	27c	121.33$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.76	92	54.3%50 W · 42 L	+6.2wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4abd…5a5cbacked United States	27c	118.22$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.92	90	53.3%48 W · 42 L	+6.0wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe62c…97e1backed United States	14c	108.21$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	101	38.6%39 W · 62 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked United States	27c	100$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	245	41.2%101 W · 144 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x587c…9c4ebacked United States	19c	93.11$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.69	100	19%19 W · 81 L	-11.2wins	-0.11per pick	30cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1af3…b3b4backed United States	18c	92.18$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.59	203	33.5%68 W · 135 L	-10.3wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e6f…5e4fbacked United States	19c	78.95$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	48	58.3%28 W · 20 L	+5.2wins	+0.11per pick	47cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xde70…615fbacked United States	18c	61.11$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	118	39.8%47 W · 71 L	+4.4wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed United States	27c	55.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.08	855	50.6%433 W · 422 L	+54.8wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd56d…4928backed United States	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	98	48%47 W · 51 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…5720backed Australia	74c	34.23$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.9	220	52.3%115 W · 105 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: United States (-3.5)this page
Spread: Australia (-1.5)United States won
Spread: Australia (-2.5)United States won
Spread: Australia (-3.5)United States won
Spread: United States (-1.5)United States won
Spread: United States (-2.5)Australia won
Spread: United States (-4.5)Australia won
Spread: United States (-5.5)Australia won
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
United States vs. Australia: Australia 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
United States vs. Australia: Australia 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5Under won
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5Under won
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5Under won
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5Over won
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5Under won
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5Under won
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5Under won
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5Under won
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5Under won
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5Under won
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5Under won
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5Over won
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: United States (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event