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Fifa International · resolved market

Paraguay vs. France: Paraguay O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,092
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,344

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,092 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Over3c18,591$585 inLost-$584.798,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over1c4,601$59 inLost-$59.41,25239.2%491 W · 761 L+6.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-20.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over3c4,399$148 inLost-$147.991,62732.1%523 W · 1,104 L+4.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over10c1,663$166 inLost-$166.32,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over10c1,305$131 inLost-$130.5114612.3%18 W · 128 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over3c1,108$38 inLost-$38.042,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…be0abacked Over10c821.52$84 inLost-$84.34346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over3c699.97$24 inLost-$242,45334.7%850 W · 1,603 L+84.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc72…2888backed Over2c598.83$11 inLost-$10.9927227.6%75 W · 197 L-0.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over4c595$26 inLost-$26.261,49241%612 W · 880 L-1.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe981…1859backed Over10c500$50 inLost-$5010918.3%20 W · 89 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0e1…1f14backed Over2c500$10 inLost-$10296.9%2 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed Over10c484.5$48 inLost-$48.457823.1%18 W · 60 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Over9c480.44$43 inLost-$43.2412227.9%34 W · 88 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc337…5984backed Over12c416.67$50 inLost-$5019618.4%36 W · 160 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-31.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4de1…d632backed Over6c324.17$19 inLost-$19.451428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over10c301.73$30 inLost-$30.174,02738.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L-26.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40b5…6b5fbacked Over10c250$25 inLost-$2520025.5%51 W · 149 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe383…9750backed Over6c216.67$13 inLost-$131822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-55.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Over10c200$20 inLost-$2025727.2%70 W · 187 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bed…85b8backed Over8c200$16 inLost-$1612544.8%56 W · 69 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1c9a…51e8backed Over10c200$20 inLost-$201926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid+5.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2d13…fd88backed Over10c200$20 inLost-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Over8c180$14 inLost-$14.042,57646.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L+35.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe481…d138backed Over8c176.31$14 inLost-$14.3832837.2%122 W · 206 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bd8…f260backed Over12c166.67$20 inLost-$2037919.5%74 W · 305 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x606e…ce83backed Over10c150$15 inLost-$153212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+62.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab13…ee77backed Over10c107.8$11 inLost-$10.78520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-70.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8ba…1b19backed Over11c100.82$11 inLost-$10.99333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f6…4892backed Over10c100$10 inLost-$1012639.7%50 W · 76 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x175b…aee9backed Over10c100$10 inLost-$10825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4929…f37abacked Over10c100$10 inLost-$106434.4%22 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 42 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.