Fifa International · resolved market
Paraguay vs. France: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26ce5ee30d0108adb9507570459ae3dc545df642d67e09c3a581b89611b349a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6639…0e59backed Yes | 15c | 10,000$1,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.75 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888b…5d1abacked Yes | 12c | 8,231$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a4…097fbacked Yes | 9c | 5,556$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cc…f83abacked Yes | 72c | 2,600$1,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,883 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf529…755fbacked No | 25c | 2,505$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,878.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 10c | 2,082$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.86 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,716$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.65 | 778 | 45%350 W · 428 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d18…827bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,124$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.89 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 9c | 1,046$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.39 | 127 | 9.4%12 W · 115 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aea…10c9backed Yes | 4c | 1,012$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…928bbacked Yes | 12c | 863.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…f48dbacked Yes | 7c | 699.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…0755backed Yes | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 8c | 664.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 360 | 38.1%137 W · 223 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b20…b887backed Yes | 9c | 600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Yes | 30c | 547.21$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…4e40backed Yes | 7c | 528.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…9e43backed Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 23.5%24 W · 78 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bc…420dbacked Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 101 | 30.7%31 W · 70 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c1…6485backed Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…05c0backed Yes | 14c | 298.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 219 | 37.9%83 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 294.52$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.93 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…8cffbacked Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 10c | 273.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3198…8b1fbacked Yes | 9c | 271.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb9…836bbacked Yes | 11c | 266.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9813…bb6fbacked Yes | 8c | 263.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…9d94backed Yes | 20c | 250.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70cb…41c8backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe857…7b3bbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6e…2175backed Yes | 19c | 238.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1234…70c2backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba84…b857backed Yes | 10c | 207.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf1…2960backed Yes | 8c | 190.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646d…41d9backed Yes | 8c | 190$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 30cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764f…6b8abacked Yes | 8c | 185.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2b…3f22backed Yes | 15c | 163.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d5…d1bbbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d36…9c54backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 125 | 17.6%22 W · 103 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa611…2986backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…4e6fbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…8412backed Yes | 10c | 123.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25a7…8b7cbacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x119f…fa2bbacked Yes | 19c | 105.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeec3…c3d2backed Yes | 17c | 103.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4f…ce53backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd3…3a42backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7e…a020backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd565…d785backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…0353backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Yes | 13c | 98.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,111 | 24.3%270 W · 841 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0392…ab02backed Yes | 20c | 71.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 123 | 40.7%50 W · 73 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 64c | 17.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 209 | 68.4%143 W · 66 L | +21.5wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 42 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paraguay vs. France: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?this page
- Paraguay vs. France: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. France: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. France: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Paraguay vs. France: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. France: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. France: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Paraguay vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Paraguay vs. France: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Paraguay vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. France: France 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Paraguay vs. France: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. France: France O/U 0.5Over won
- Paraguay vs. France: France O/U 1.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. France: France O/U 2.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. France: O/U 0.5Over won
- Paraguay vs. France: O/U 1.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. France: O/U 2.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. France: O/U 3.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. France: O/U 4.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. France: O/U 5.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. France: O/U 6.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. France: O/U 7.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. France: O/U 8.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. France: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. France: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. France: Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. France: Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. France: Paraguay O/U 0.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. France: Paraguay O/U 1.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. France: Paraguay O/U 2.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. France: Team to AdvanceFrance won
- Paraguay vs. France: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?No won
- Spread: France (-1.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: France (-2.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: France (-3.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: France (-4.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: France (-5.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)France won
- Spread: Paraguay (-2.5)France won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.