Paraguay vs. France: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb62ef3e4817bdc6fe843283a520fad6e24d70ea8f7d6e691fb9b18707f1086a

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $42,361
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $46,981

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,361 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Yes	15c	6,130$920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$919.52	65	24.6%16 W · 49 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed No	78c	2,345$1,840 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$505.8	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945d…4c3dbacked Yes	14c	2,101$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf769…0114backed Yes	13c	2,097$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.6	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-3.1wins	-0.16per pick	22cpaid	-92.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3406…1ae0backed Yes	48c	2,094$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-63.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2f4…cddbbacked Yes	15c	2,052$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298	42	38.1%16 W · 26 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	71c	1,778$1,271 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$506.65	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76aa…eff9backed No	50c	1,774$887 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$886.9	257	53.3%137 W · 120 L	+23.5wins	+0.09per pick	44cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x16da…05c0backed No	76c	1,462$1,109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$353.7	219	37.9%83 W · 136 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x20c6…45aebacked Yes	21c	953.33$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	127	36.2%46 W · 81 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes	14c	952.22$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.02	127	9.4%12 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc367…3066backed Yes	14c	928.57$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f3a…99b2backed Yes	25c	721.13$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	87	33.3%29 W · 58 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1bc…420dbacked Yes	17c	592.15$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	101	30.7%31 W · 70 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	19c	512.05$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.88	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44a5…d2eebacked Yes	39c	442.06$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.5	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5884…f2b3backed Yes	14c	428.57$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	30cpaid	+57.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf726…9565backed Yes	14c	428.57$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x936a…928bbacked Yes	25c	408.64$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	37	43.2%16 W · 21 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No	75c	377.8$282 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.81	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62f8…f64fbacked Yes	14c	357.14$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	184	52.2%96 W · 88 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2888…0fe4backed Yes	37c	270.11$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	52	36.5%19 W · 33 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8966…1e9fbacked Yes	14c	266.21$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.27	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No	72c	263.51$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.98	2,533	46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L	+12.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes	9c	237$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.63	1,252	39.2%491 W · 761 L	+6.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6b1f…3fd0backed Yes	11c	235.71$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	158	37.3%59 W · 99 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Yes	18c	229.37$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.06	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8412…31ddbacked Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6872backed No	56c	199.98$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.99	166	56.6%94 W · 72 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc139…e4e0backed Yes	18c	198.41$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c18…f974backed Yes	15c	183.2$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.48	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Yes	20c	167.73$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.09	586	42.8%251 W · 335 L	+17.8wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfd6…415abacked Yes	31c	159.13$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.71	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.10per pick	58cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x078e…9d94backed Yes	32c	156.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	51	37.3%19 W · 32 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	360	38.1%137 W · 223 L	-15.1wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-14%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22e5…17d0backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	50	20%10 W · 40 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8662…0731backed Yes	38c	131.58$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2d6…6725backed Yes	14c	128.57$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe857…7b3bbacked Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	59	32.2%19 W · 40 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c98…c717backed Yes	16c	119$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.42	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.21per pick	12cpaid	+203%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	14c	112.03$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.68	226	34.1%77 W · 149 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2417…86b1backed Yes	27c	111.11$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	+4.5wins	+0.10per pick	43cpaid	+49.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaece…6fcfbacked Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	65	38.5%25 W · 40 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0fb…0be6backed Yes	13c	108.27$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-2.5wins	-0.19per pick	43cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x782e…e910backed Yes	28c	107.93$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	66	22.7%15 W · 51 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x854c…3f82backed Yes	14c	107.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-3.6wins	-0.30per pick	39cpaid	-88.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf011…dc57backed Yes	19c	103.95$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.02	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	-4.1wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-59.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x70ca…2443backed Yes	14c	102.64$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.37	350	41.1%144 W · 206 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4dd…23ffbacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	162	40.1%65 W · 97 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87f8…7de3backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	58	19%11 W · 47 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f5e…2b6abacked Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.8wins	-0.20per pick	31cpaid	-64.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba7b…91f5backed Yes	41c	97.56$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	261	44.8%117 W · 144 L	-8.1wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fb9…836bbacked Yes	24c	82.1$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x203a…5792backed Yes	17c	81.35$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	60	46.7%28 W · 32 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44aa…1190backed Yes	28c	79.46$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdf1…2960backed Yes	19c	78.95$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	165	31.5%52 W · 113 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bd8…f260backed Yes	14c	74.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.43	379	19.5%74 W · 305 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19fe…3f6fbacked Yes	27c	74.07$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	82	31.7%26 W · 56 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7603…e3c1backed Yes	14c	72.93$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.21	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+2.4wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+37.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ee3…01abbacked Yes	34c	71.41$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.28	81	40.7%33 W · 48 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x62c1…4a67backed Yes	29c	69.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	34cpaid	+34.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe39…10adbacked Yes	18c	66.67$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.13per pick	29cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeff0…0720backed Yes	31c	64.84$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x584d…afe7backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2295…17e6backed Yes	25c	55.96$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	65	29.2%19 W · 46 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc6d…31cebacked Yes	24c	54.3$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.16	669	32.1%215 W · 454 L	+16.8wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb174…af3fbacked Yes	28c	54.04$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.11	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe369…0515backed Yes	28c	53.57$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbfb…de25backed Yes	38c	52.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	111	44.1%49 W · 62 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59af…8721backed Yes	27c	51.56$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.92	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0817…1eb1backed Yes	38c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	68	50%34 W · 34 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked No	74c	46.54$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.1	25	76%19 W · 6 L	+3.6wins	+0.15per pick	61cpaid	+52.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb3f…bca1backed Yes	25c	44.18$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.22per pick	49cpaid	+46.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6049…79dfbacked Yes	28c	40$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No	51c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.6	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb192…67fabacked Yes	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa731…0d55backed Yes	38c	39.47$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.23per pick	43cpaid	+45.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a0a…b1e2backed No	74c	35.09$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.12	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1001…0cf1backed Yes	32c	34.69$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	44	59.1%26 W · 18 L	+3.4wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+33.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8cb2…996cbacked Yes	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	34	35.3%12 W · 22 L	+2.5wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce3e…7fbfbacked No	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+2.8wins	+0.18per pick	39cpaid	+53.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa2b…f194backed No	71c	19.98$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.72	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf94…dfe2backed No	74c	19.93$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.18	58	58.6%34 W · 24 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 42 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Paraguay vs. France: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?this page
Paraguay vs. France: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Paraguay vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Paraguay vs. France: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Paraguay vs. France: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Paraguay vs. France: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Paraguay vs. France: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Paraguay vs. France: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Paraguay vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Paraguay vs. France: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
Paraguay vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Paraguay vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Paraguay vs. France: France 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Paraguay vs. France: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Paraguay vs. France: France O/U 0.5Over won
Paraguay vs. France: France O/U 1.5Under won
Paraguay vs. France: France O/U 2.5Under won
Paraguay vs. France: O/U 0.5Over won
Paraguay vs. France: O/U 1.5Under won
Paraguay vs. France: O/U 2.5Under won
Paraguay vs. France: O/U 3.5Under won
Paraguay vs. France: O/U 4.5Under won
Paraguay vs. France: O/U 5.5Under won
Paraguay vs. France: O/U 6.5Under won
Paraguay vs. France: O/U 7.5Under won
Paraguay vs. France: O/U 8.5Under won
Paraguay vs. France: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Paraguay vs. France: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Paraguay vs. France: Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Paraguay vs. France: Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Paraguay vs. France: Paraguay O/U 0.5Under won
Paraguay vs. France: Paraguay O/U 1.5Under won
Paraguay vs. France: Paraguay O/U 2.5Under won
Paraguay vs. France: Team to AdvanceFrance won
Paraguay vs. France: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?No won
Spread: France (-1.5)Paraguay won
Spread: France (-2.5)Paraguay won
Spread: France (-3.5)Paraguay won
Spread: France (-4.5)Paraguay won
Spread: France (-5.5)Paraguay won
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)France won
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5)France won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Paraguay vs. France: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event