TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Mexicoof Ecuador, Mexico
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$166,161
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$202,486

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,161 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe734…4f0cbacked Ecuador1c31,185$202 inLost-$201.858325.3%21 W · 62 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-28.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdac7…6d53backed Ecuador1c25,000$300 inLost-$3009131.9%29 W · 62 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa850…9b11backed Ecuador1c7,559$111 inLost-$111.2515229.6%45 W · 107 L-11.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Ecuador0c4,338$20 inLost-$19.623,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Ecuador1c3,598$24 inLost-$23.982,63432.9%867 W · 1,767 L+43.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef4f…4598backed Ecuador1c3,320$37 inLost-$37.523236.6%85 W · 147 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Ecuador1c2,311$20 inLost-$20.4816546.1%76 W · 89 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Ecuador2c2,214$36 inLost-$35.572,17138.2%829 W · 1,342 L-36.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Ecuador2c2,150$43 inLost-$4360511.4%69 W · 536 L-16.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Ecuador1c1,996$24 inLost-$23.9531232.4%101 W · 211 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ecuador1c1,713$17 inLost-$16.62,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Ecuador1c1,540$13 inLost-$13.3465737.4%246 W · 411 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Ecuador1c1,450$15 inLost-$15.3337223.4%87 W · 285 L-25.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Ecuador1c1,130$12 inLost-$12.433,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c6…7b39backed Ecuador1c951.64$14 inLost-$13.6848937%181 W · 308 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78c1…473ebacked Ecuador2c742.58$11 inLost-$11.1451315.6%80 W · 433 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.