Fifa International · resolved market
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44a46fead32766a978c32bdf726fe15107eecf1ed534a2c97572654751ca3fae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 15c | 16,074$2,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,357.93 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 15c | 11,441$1,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680.84 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 16c | 5,084$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.93 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 19c | 3,836$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.61 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 17c | 3,242$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.29 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe987…f0e1backed Over | 17c | 3,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 380 | 26.6%101 W · 279 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9689…df62backed Over | 12c | 2,500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.93 | 234 | 27.8%65 W · 169 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 14c | 2,020$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.2 | 1,252 | 39.2%491 W · 761 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 15c | 755.72$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.86 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Over | 14c | 714.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 11c | 632.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 226 | 34.1%77 W · 149 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Over | 20c | 525.64$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.27 | 1,475 | 44.9%663 W · 812 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 12c | 495.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 1,669 | 41.6%694 W · 975 L | +15.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2952…f50dbacked Over | 19c | 449.16$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.34 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0938…a9a8backed Over | 18c | 408.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.51 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 14c | 395.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 18c | 376.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.61 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 17c | 326.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 2,271 | 39.5%896 W · 1,375 L | +10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…9c4cbacked Over | 17c | 304.71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 735 | 36.3%267 W · 468 L | -32.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Over | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 872 | 37.8%330 W · 542 L | -39.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f17…c1dbbacked Over | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 288 | 8%23 W · 265 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,438 | 40.1%576 W · 862 L | -40.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7a…751abacked Over | 18c | 168.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 732 | 34.6%253 W · 479 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,354 | 38.9%527 W · 827 L | -55.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Over | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,388 | 15.1%210 W · 1,178 L | -16.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…d876backed Over | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…046fbacked Over | 20c | 126.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 345 | 26.1%90 W · 255 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Over | 18c | 120.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 1,111 | 24.3%270 W · 841 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 19c | 119$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 16c | 111.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 1,627 | 32.1%523 W · 1,104 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Over | 23c | 109.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 650 | 36.9%240 W · 410 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1594…a834backed Over | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d4…ef77backed Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…1462backed Over | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 14c | 99.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1,563 | 39.8%622 W · 941 L | -51.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 17c | 96.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,293 | 53.6%693 W · 600 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 18c | 64.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1,616 | 51.2%827 W · 789 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 328 | 37.2%122 W · 206 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5this page
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico O/U 1.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 5.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to AdvanceMexico won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?No won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?No won
- Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Mexico (-1.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Mexico (-2.5)Ecuador won
- Spread: Mexico (-3.5)Ecuador won
- Spread: Mexico (-4.5)Ecuador won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.