Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0594b96046c411d37686ced117713601f5b4cd544ab1bc3bd5c13d14f4491e4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mexicoof Ecuador, Mexico
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $532,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $664,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $532,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Ecuador | 4c | 73,399$3,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,187.76 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Ecuador | 7c | 57,394$3,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,935.64 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59f4…c1f1backed Ecuador | 7c | 42,219$2,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,955.35 | 81 | 35.8%29 W · 52 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdac7…6d53backed Ecuador | 6c | 25,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.01 | 91 | 31.9%29 W · 62 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe734…4f0cbacked Ecuador | 6c | 15,005$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.26 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…34a5backed Ecuador | 7c | 12,155$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.83 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Ecuador | 6c | 4,297$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.82 | 716 | 38.4%275 W · 441 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Ecuador | 4c | 3,901$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.05 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Ecuador | 7c | 3,150$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.5 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa500…39d1backed Ecuador | 7c | 2,857$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ecuador | 3c | 2,838$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e6…9e72backed Ecuador | 7c | 2,429$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Ecuador | 6c | 2,029$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.44 | 470 | 32.8%154 W · 316 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Ecuador | 7c | 1,684$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.88 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eeb…e3abbacked Ecuador | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ecuador | 5c | 1,243$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…c175backed Ecuador | 5c | 1,111$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 76 | 17.1%13 W · 63 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Ecuador | 6c | 966.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 177 | 36.7%65 W · 112 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11be…7712backed Ecuador | 7c | 942.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 226 | 20.4%46 W · 180 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…90cbbacked Ecuador | 6c | 901.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Ecuador | 3c | 900$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36e…f91cbacked Ecuador | 7c | 822.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 154 | 18.8%29 W · 125 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Ecuador | 3c | 788.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…fc51backed Ecuador | 6c | 764.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 105 | 34.3%36 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…b8dcbacked Ecuador | 4c | 730.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c1…473ebacked Ecuador | 6c | 685.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 513 | 15.6%80 W · 433 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Ecuador | 6c | 678.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 423 | 32.9%139 W · 284 L | -17.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Ecuador | 4c | 666.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 372 | 23.4%87 W · 285 L | -25.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Ecuador | 3c | 620$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 1,627 | 32.1%523 W · 1,104 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Ecuador | 3c | 600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 226 | 23.5%53 W · 173 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Ecuador | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 471 | 27.8%131 W · 340 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Ecuador | 6c | 566.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 1,240 | 43.7%542 W · 698 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Ecuador | 4c | 543.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 1,252 | 39.2%491 W · 761 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde3d…6b1fbacked Ecuador | 7c | 529.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 92 | 19.6%18 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Ecuador | 6c | 500.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 1,313 | 48.9%642 W · 671 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…ac23backed Ecuador | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 957 | 39.5%378 W · 579 L | -18.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Ecuador | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 977 | 42%410 W · 567 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…f1b7backed Ecuador | 4c | 473.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 782 | 34.3%268 W · 514 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Ecuador | 6c | 468.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 1,390 | 46.3%644 W · 746 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204c…1e26backed Ecuador | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Ecuador | 4c | 390$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 753 | 35.6%268 W · 485 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd546…657bbacked Ecuador | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 306 | 7.8%24 W · 282 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ac14backed Ecuador | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Ecuador | 7c | 347.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 489 | 37%181 W · 308 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…3b32backed Ecuador | 6c | 322.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1330…b4b5backed Ecuador | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Ecuador | 4c | 276$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked Ecuador | 8c | 237.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d41…a06bbacked Ecuador | 7c | 220.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7a…751abacked Ecuador | 7c | 220.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 732 | 34.6%253 W · 479 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608e…4d65backed Ecuador | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…ca2dbacked Ecuador | 7c | 180$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 129 | 14.7%19 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae40…0448backed Ecuador | 7c | 178.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533b…0a9ebacked Ecuador | 7c | 166$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 232 | 27.6%64 W · 168 L | -12.1wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0823…ec6abacked Ecuador | 8c | 162.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 431 | 39%168 W · 263 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)this page
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico O/U 1.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 5.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to AdvanceMexico won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?No won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?No won
- Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Mexico (-1.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Mexico (-2.5)Ecuador won
- Spread: Mexico (-3.5)Ecuador won
- Spread: Mexico (-4.5)Ecuador won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.