Mexico vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca2ace6e00e25fbdfd9da1ed665c92ca606692d669d9c978e75a2ca444fd5d03

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jul 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $159,185
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $189,020

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,185 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1f5f…1695backed Over	6c	16,667$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	372	23.9%89 W · 283 L	-9.9wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe301…8654backed Over	1c	10,606$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.94	441	30.8%136 W · 305 L	-11.6wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03b8…b4aebacked Under	77c	8,475$6,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,974.55	233	53.2%124 W · 109 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x353c…01d9backed Under	79c	7,906$6,279 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,627.88	31	67.7%21 W · 10 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	62cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfec6…b86cbacked Under	77c	5,336$4,112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,224.08	376	50.8%191 W · 185 L	-12.2wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa700…102bbacked Over	12c	5,170$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$625.11	515	14.2%73 W · 442 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over	6c	2,550$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Over	12c	2,410$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289	365	39.7%145 W · 220 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over	30c	2,404$722 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$722.41	735	36.3%267 W · 468 L	-32.3wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff57…1802backed Under	77c	2,212$1,693 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$518.61	297	40.1%119 W · 178 L	-18.7wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb06f…884cbacked Under	77c	2,128$1,629 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$498.76	250	49.2%123 W · 127 L	-13.1wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x145a…5e86backed Over	31c	1,816$563 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$562.64	216	41.7%90 W · 126 L	+3.2wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…5998backed Over	4c	1,719$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.76	372	42.5%158 W · 214 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over	16c	1,638$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.06	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	13c	1,583$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.04	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e6…9b21backed Over	17c	1,455$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.41	253	39.5%100 W · 153 L	+8.5wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33d3…bf38backed Over	29c	1,410$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414.07	42	54.8%23 W · 19 L	+3.7wins	+0.09per pick	46cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x510c…6a61backed Over	28c	1,404$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	220	29.5%65 W · 155 L	+10.8wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	-14%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x482a…c85dbacked Under	70c	1,391$968 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$423	347	31.1%108 W · 239 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Over	33c	1,385$452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$451.96	1,380	40.2%555 W · 825 L	-51.6wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-23%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb79…47a9backed Over	4c	1,250$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	57	26.3%15 W · 42 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3642…74eabacked Over	28c	1,250$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	137	27%37 W · 100 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Over	32c	1,084$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.79	1,438	40.1%576 W · 862 L	-40.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under	70c	1,059$737 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$321.65	2,271	39.5%896 W · 1,375 L	+10.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over	23c	993.48$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.13	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Over	22c	962.75$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.08	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd871…6bbabacked Over	35c	890$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.5	151	41.7%63 W · 88 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2e78…067ebacked Over	12c	833.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	362	35.9%130 W · 232 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x275c…349cbacked Over	17c	828.9$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.28	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+43.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x059c…050ebacked Under	65c	774.01$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$274.03	236	37.7%89 W · 147 L	-9.3wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over	20c	690.46$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.09	2,533	46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L	+12.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9d1e…9e97backed Under	66c	606.06$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$206.06	282	51.4%145 W · 137 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cfe…c83cbacked Over	17c	602.41$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.61	362	34%123 W · 239 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca0…140ebacked Over	6c	583.33$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	172	40.7%70 W · 102 L	+11.0wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4502…9eedbacked Under	67c	523.22$352 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.96	306	42.8%131 W · 175 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-20%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda63…b031backed Over	22c	508.4$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	139	33.1%46 W · 93 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Over	27c	505.85$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.07	1,563	39.8%622 W · 941 L	-51.9wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Over	36c	421.31$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.38	872	37.8%330 W · 542 L	-39.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over	23c	405.44$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.65	1,669	41.6%694 W · 975 L	+15.9wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3740…a935backed Under	78c	400$311 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.07	211	66.4%140 W · 71 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	66cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa80e…9fd6backed Over	14c	363.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.48	222	16.2%36 W · 186 L	+6.8wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+59.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e97…8ffabacked Under	62c	352.72$218 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.34	251	25.1%63 W · 188 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Over	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	226	34.1%77 W · 149 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa681…8b89backed Over	30c	300$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.3	270	28.9%78 W · 192 L	-12.2wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x274b…d408backed Over	30c	300$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.2	291	38.8%113 W · 178 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+40.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over	7c	277.58$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.52	1,941	35.5%690 W · 1,251 L	-25.4wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc423…03b9backed Over	22c	269.61$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	409	12%49 W · 360 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0f0…d4bfbacked Over	36c	250$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	51	39.2%20 W · 31 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8325…19ccbacked Over	20c	224.16$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.83	668	46.7%312 W · 356 L	+45.9wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a0b…2500backed Over	24c	208.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	158	46.8%74 W · 84 L	+15.1wins	+0.10per pick	37cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7e34…63f7backed Under	72c	199.99$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.2	281	64.1%180 W · 101 L	+16.0wins	+0.06per pick	58cpaid	+7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Over	15c	196.94$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.31	1,795	44.2%794 W · 1,001 L	-12.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Over	20c	175.61$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.55	1,354	38.9%527 W · 827 L	-55.8wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Over	33c	172$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.17	650	36.9%240 W · 410 L	-27.9wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-28%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under	72c	171.69$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.37	2,819	44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L	-36.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63fa…04e0backed Over	31c	161.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.8wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	14c	144.63$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.53	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abd…03e3backed Under	80c	125$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over	22c	112.08$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.66	384	37%142 W · 242 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b14…8d5ebacked Over	14c	107.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb41a…0a9bbacked Under	73c	105.98$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.61	70	47.1%33 W · 37 L	+5.4wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+55.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over	16c	104.74$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.63	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…ed59backed Over	35c	85.71$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	44	50%22 W · 22 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd8e…4e20backed Over	20c	79.5$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8103…4d0abacked Over	28c	71.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	283	26.1%74 W · 209 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd3f…b7c9backed Under	72c	68.82$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.27	53	28.3%15 W · 38 L	-4.3wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2982…2d3dbacked Under	72c	41.72$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.72	67	59.7%40 W · 27 L	+3.7wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c49…c6c2backed Under	72c	40.92$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.5	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under	57c	38$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.21	2,793	46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L	-10.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa236…4cbbbacked Under	80c	37.61$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.63	73	57.5%42 W · 31 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x673d…1247backed Under	62c	32.26$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.26	98	33.7%33 W · 65 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9a2…a587backed Under	67c	29.85$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.85	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2460…e144backed Under	72c	17.68$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.95	80	58.8%47 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Mexico vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5this page
Mexico vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 2.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico O/U 0.5Over won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico O/U 1.5Over won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico O/U 2.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5Over won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5Over won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 5.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to AdvanceMexico won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?No won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?No won
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)Mexico won
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)Mexico won
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)Mexico won
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)Mexico won
Spread: Mexico (-2.5)Ecuador won
Spread: Mexico (-3.5)Ecuador won
Spread: Mexico (-4.5)Ecuador won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Mexico vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event