Fifa International · resolved market
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ca5bd73a4ed0fe17e68641b9fed3ad8972c9af747a2bc47145651ff0cc771cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $226,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $224,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $226,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e7c…6392backed Over | 2c | 23,393$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 5c | 21,456$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.11 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41e…e2e9backed Over | 0c | 12,194$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 2c | 9,104$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.59 | 1,252 | 39.2%491 W · 761 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Over | 2c | 8,300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.19 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Over | 2c | 6,809$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.18 | 285 | 26.3%75 W · 210 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 2c | 4,953$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 894 | 43.4%388 W · 506 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…c2f8backed Over | 2c | 4,686$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf16…464ebacked Over | 4c | 4,307$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.54 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 2c | 3,787$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 1,044 | 43.7%456 W · 588 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 3c | 3,527$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.47 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 3c | 3,315$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.65 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6320…7e94backed Over | 2c | 2,700$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 388 | 17.5%68 W · 320 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 4c | 2,698$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 372 | 23.4%87 W · 285 L | -25.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8443…2988backed Over | 2c | 2,326$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 2c | 1,877$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…1269backed Over | 9c | 1,314$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.21 | 383 | 33.9%130 W · 253 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 2c | 1,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 451 | 20.6%93 W · 358 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb15…8393backed Over | 2c | 1,249$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 2c | 1,110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 438 | 19.2%84 W · 354 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x786d…b89bbacked Over | 2c | 962.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 522 | 17.4%91 W · 431 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Over | 3c | 700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 226 | 23.5%53 W · 173 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 6c | 659.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83d…826fbacked Over | 2c | 638$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 4c | 624.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 5c | 523.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 719 | 39.1%281 W · 438 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e6…9e72backed Over | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6f…d024backed Over | 3c | 423.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 774 | 33.1%256 W · 518 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Over | 3c | 387.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 312 | 32.4%101 W · 211 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…577ebacked Over | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 82 | 12.2%10 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 6c | 251.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 8c | 184.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1,627 | 32.1%523 W · 1,104 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +31.0wins | +0.24per pick | 35cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 5.5this page
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico O/U 1.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to AdvanceMexico won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?No won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?No won
- Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Mexico (-1.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Mexico (-2.5)Ecuador won
- Spread: Mexico (-3.5)Ecuador won
- Spread: Mexico (-4.5)Ecuador won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.