Fifa International · resolved market
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5d93293b943ecf784b1ce1c2f12e731f696a1e4cbfa5a2ab253b622f022e304
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 75c | 1,574$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.43 | 342 | 49.1%168 W · 174 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d7…da62backed Yes | 7c | 1,383$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 147 | 25.9%38 W · 109 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 16c | 885.33$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.65 | 778 | 45%350 W · 428 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 74c | 422.61$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.88 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Yes | 22c | 414.92$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.23 | 1,111 | 24.3%270 W · 841 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…b1b9backed Yes | 23c | 405$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.2 | 100 | 38%38 W · 62 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18af…66efbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92a…7d0dbacked Yes | 26c | 385.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0571…78bebacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 20c | 356.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 226 | 34.1%77 W · 149 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb41…1fffbacked Yes | 25c | 236$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4216…48d8backed Yes | 23c | 219.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0c…fb1abacked Yes | 23c | 217.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 483 | 34.2%165 W · 318 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x150d…8648backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…3191backed Yes | 25c | 200.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…1351backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f1…5d81backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e86…2c40backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…225fbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a4…5e8fbacked Yes | 24c | 199.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed No | 77c | 199.91$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 23c | 182.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc3…4bdcbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…e3b6backed No | 78c | 128.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad1…35d0backed Yes | 25c | 120.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed No | 77c | 119.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed No | 76c | 105.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 123 | 40.7%50 W · 73 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 467 | 43.3%202 W · 265 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9be…6276backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…584fbacked Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c0acbacked Yes | 23c | 89.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…4fa9backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…885cbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 360 | 38.1%137 W · 223 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb5…8353backed Yes | 15c | 78.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a51…f305backed Yes | 24c | 78.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 188 | 27.7%52 W · 136 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 77.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…8f91backed Yes | 22c | 77.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1e…790cbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…3b83backed Yes | 25c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 21c | 72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…0dc8backed Yes | 23c | 65.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 165 | 35.2%58 W · 107 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf26…6c4dbacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb649…e988backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…f0cbbacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed No | 76c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1,293 | 53.6%693 W · 600 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…9294backed Yes | 24c | 52.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 494 | 26.7%132 W · 362 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc506…4c2dbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55f4…4021backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 178 | 54.5%97 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8d…35bfbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 228 | 25.4%58 W · 170 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7af3…dad9backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd1…3e06backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf7…0fb8backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 77c | 30.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…a006backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,475 | 44.9%663 W · 812 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18fe…af43backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 75c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x335a…e5b8backed No | 80c | 18.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?this page
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico O/U 1.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 5.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to AdvanceMexico won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?No won
- Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Mexico (-1.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Mexico (-2.5)Ecuador won
- Spread: Mexico (-3.5)Ecuador won
- Spread: Mexico (-4.5)Ecuador won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.